Storm track to our north will continue to bring clouds, breezes and chance for a few light snow showers to mountains of Northern Utah over the next few days. A more active pattern will begin Thursday as the storm track dips south into the region.
Moisture continues to funnel into regions to our north. We are left with clouds and breezes in Utah. Still looks attractive this morning atop the Wasatch:
Additional waves of energy will clip the area. One will bring a chance for a snow shower or two on Monday night into early Tuesday. Accumulations look unlikely.
Thursday is still the day when the pattern changes more dramatically. A system will push a cold front into the region late Thursday with snow likely for most areas on Thursday night, hopefully continuing through the day on Friday. Friday could be a half decent powder day. This first system looks to be a moderate snow producer at this time.
Saturday is a break in the action before a stronger system moves in for Sunday into Monday. This system looks to have quite a bit of potential, although I am somewhat nervous that the pattern could become too amplified and the best moisture could stay west of us. At this time, however, models still suggesting good snowfall.
The Canadian GEM shows good snowfall:
Don’t pay too much attention to the amounts. This model assumes 10:1 ratios, which is likely low. It’s also not high resolution. I’d say this model would suggest 6-12″ from the first storm with 1-2 feet from the second storm. Not too shabby.
The GFS is much more aggressive:
I think the GFS might be overdoing things a bit, but it does show many of the high mountains receiving 50+” through the end of its run, which is quite impressive.
At this time, it looks like we have potential to see a moderate storm Thursday night and Friday with a more significant storm late Sunday into Monday. The timing of these systems as well as the details of their strength will change in the next few days so stay tuned.
I’ll freely admit that I am paranoid that the pattern may “over amplify” causing the best dynamics to drop down the west coast before passing to our south. Even in a worst case scenario, however, we’ll still see some decent accumulating snow in the Wasatch. In a best case scenario, it could be one of our better storm cycles since 2010-11.