Can the northwest flow produce?

Sunday, November 29, 2015 at 8:19 am


Another day of cold air with snow showers possible.  A northwest flow this afternoon and evening will bring a good chance for accumulating snow in the Cottonwoods.  A break for most of this week with a chance for snow showers Friday into Saturday as a weak system moves into the area.


Off and on snow showers yesterday in the mountains yielded an additional inch or two of snow at most resorts.  Continued cold today as the flow gradually turns out of the northwest.  A moist northwest flow will bring a chance for orographic snowfall to develop this afternoon, especially in favored areas like the Cottonwoods and central Utah mountains along I-15.  This “storm” will be pretty much entirely reliant on orographic lift provided by the terrain, which makes it hard to forecast with any confidence.

As we head into this evening, snow will become more likely.  Right now, I could feasibly see the Cottonwoods seeing anywhere from just a dusting to 6+” by tomorrow morning, depending on how efficient the orographic machine is.  I would recommend maintaining low expectations, but keeping a vigilant eye on the radar and webcams this afternoon and this evening.  Certainly a chance for a sleeper powder day on Monday.

We will dry out and start our warm-up tomorrow as the low pressure moves away from the region and ridging builds in.  A pacific trough will push into the Pacific NW and Northern California on Thursday.  As mentioned previously, it looks like it will split and weaken as it encounters high pressure.

High pressure should keep control of the region for the first 10 days or so of December.  At this point, more models than not indicate a pattern change back to stormier weather sometime around the 10th.  Of course, this is long range so we’ll just have to wait and hope for now.


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4 thoughts on “Can the northwest flow produce?

    1. Marc Guido

      I’d think that’s somewhat unlikely given WSF’s comments that it’s entirely dependent upon orographic lift.

  1. Jim

    Not a very good pattern next 2 weeks. Storm track seems to favor PNW and BC. How do the long term ensembles look?

  2. Kaykoh

    Is their a link to the snow pack chart you occasionally show in your posts? I’m curious to see how we measure against last year and the median.

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