Déjà vu 4.0

Monday, November 23, 2015 at 6:45 am

5:14pm Update:

After checking out 18z guidance, things are a bit clearer.  Looks like right now it would be 4-8″ for most of the Wasatch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday PM.  Cottonwoods could get more with up to 12″ if things go right for us.  Remember, the last 3 storms kinda fell apart in the models then ended up doing well for us, let’s hope we can get the most out of this one as well.  Update tomorrow morning…WSF



Much colder temperatures and snow likely Wednesday evening into Thursday. Powder skiing a good bet for your Turkey Day.


One last benign day today (Monday).  Winds pick up on Tuesday with snow developing by Wednesday afternoon.  System is about 6 hours slower than it was at this time yesterday, so that means the onset of snow likely won’t be until afternoon on Wednesday.  That means even last chair might not have much fresh snow to offer on Wednesday.

Previously, we talked about how just a difference of a few hundred miles in the track of this low pressure system would make a huge difference in how this storm performed for us.  Unfortunately, the latest trends have been for it to track just a bit farther west.  This westerly trend means a weaker cold front without a prolonged northwest flow behind the front.  For the fourth time in four weeks,  our loss is the Sierra Nevada’s gain.

This doesn’t mean that the storm still can’t perform well for us.  The 00z GEFS plume still shows some ensembles trying to bring huge amounts of precipitation.



Conversely, you can see how some ensembles give us the skunk.  Honestly, right now I could see either scenario playing out.

Confidence is equally low for the rest of the weekend.  Some models/ensembles show a second piece of energy pushing through with additional accumulation while others dry us out completely after Thursday.

In conclusion, yes, I think we’ll be skiing powder on Thanksgiving Day.  The question is whether it’s just a few inches of fluff or a foot+.  Right now, I don’t have that answer.  Will update if a clearer picture develops later today.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .

5 thoughts on “Déjà vu 4.0

  1. Shakestheclown

    I am headed to Telluride and Wolf Creek for the Thanksgiving Holiday. I was wondering what kind of forecast you were seeing for the San Juan’s this week.
    Thanks a Ton!

  2. John Huggins

    up to a foot sounds nice. lets make that a foot of graupel and it will be mid winter conditions!

Comments are closed.