Sunny and dry today (Sunday) and Monday. Winds pick up on Tuesday ahead of a cold trough dropping into the Great Basin. Snow will likely develop Wednesday morning and continue through Thanksgiving. Powder and Turkey!
Benign weather is the rule of the land for now as shortwave ridging is overhead. That will move out on Tuesday and be replaced by a trough from the north. Winds will be strong ahead of this system on Tuesday and early Wednesday.
A cold front moves through on Wednesday morning with snow increasing from north to south. Right now, the timing is such that last chair Wednesday would be the best of the day. The real powder will likely be on Thanksgiving Day however.
I spent most of this morning trying to pinpoint how much snow could be expected. It’s a difficult task because each model has a slightly different track of the Low pressure center, which could have drastic impacts on total snowfall for us. This is one model output:
Not overly impressive. But…. I think one of the main reasons for that is this is a lower resolution model that has a tough time resolving the terrain of the Wasatch.
Perhaps a better way to look at it is through GEFS ensemble solution plumes:
This is for the upper Cottonwoods. GEFS ensembles showing anywhere from 6-40″ of snow. Quite a spread , the mean comes in at over 20″ however. My experience in using this is that usually it is slightly overdone. However, this is a long-duration, slow-moving system with decent moisture, cold air, and a favorable post-frontal NW flow. Perhaps this is possible….
After much consideration, I think my preliminary estimate would be 6-12″ for most of the Wasatch, with up to 18″ possible in the Cottonwoods. This is subject to change as the track and behavior of this system is not set in stone. Tomorrow, the short range models (NAM/WRF) will start coming into range and hopefully that will help.
Some models hinting that a trailing split of this system could move through next weekend with additional mountain snow showers. We’ll see…