Not much new to talk about. Cold front moves in late Sunday night with snow thru at least Monday morning. Storm is still splitting which will limit totals. EC, NAM and GEM all have more split than GFS. Right now I think 3-7″ for most of the Wasatch, with 6-12″ for the Cottonwoods and perhaps similar amounts for the mountains of central and southern Utah.
Hoping to make an update tonight with a bit more model consensus to iron out the details. WSF
Clear and warmer weather thru the weekend before the next storm moves in Sunday night into Monday with snow likely.
Three weeks, three storms… each one splitting to some degree as it moved into California, then across the Great Basin. Definitely feels like déjà vu all over again. This time the cold front will move in Sunday night with snow developing and continuing through the day on Monday. Snow levels should drop to valley floors. Again, this storm does not look major, but it should bring moderate early season amounts. GEFS ensembles showing a wide range of possibilities for the Upper Cottonwoods:
Based on this I’d expect totals in the Cottonwoods to mostly likely be in the 6-12″ range. For most other mountains of Utah, 3-8″ seems like a good bet. There is again a chance for a bit of lake enhancement behind the front, although the setup is not ideal.
A Monday powder day seems like a good possibility.
Unfortunately, models have generally been trending drier in the long range with ridging winning the battle and pushing most moisture to our north late next week. Not a ton of agreement as to when our next storm will be.