Déjà vu 3.0

Saturday, November 14, 2015 at 11:07 am

Saturday update: 

Not much new to talk about.  Cold front moves in late Sunday night with snow thru at least Monday morning.  Storm is still splitting which will limit totals.  EC, NAM and GEM all have more split than GFS.  Right now I think 3-7″ for most of the Wasatch, with 6-12″ for the Cottonwoods and perhaps similar amounts for the mountains of central and southern Utah.

Hoping to make an update tonight with a bit more model consensus to iron out the details.   WSF




Clear and warmer weather thru the weekend before the next storm moves in Sunday night into Monday with snow likely.


Three weeks, three storms… each one splitting to some degree as it moved into California, then across the Great Basin.  Definitely feels like déjà vu all over again.  This time the cold front will move in Sunday night with snow developing and continuing through the day on Monday.  Snow levels should drop to valley floors.  Again, this storm does not look major, but it should bring moderate early season amounts.  GEFS ensembles showing a wide range of possibilities for the Upper Cottonwoods:



Based on this I’d expect totals in the Cottonwoods to mostly likely be in the 6-12″ range.  For most other mountains of Utah, 3-8″ seems like a good bet.  There is again a chance for a bit of lake enhancement behind the front, although the setup is not ideal.

A Monday powder day seems like a good possibility.

Long range:

Unfortunately, models have generally been trending drier in the long range with ridging winning the battle and pushing most moisture to our north late next week.  Not a ton of agreement as to when our next storm will be.


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  • Alex

    That outlier calling for almost 40in! That made me laugh… if only!

  • Steve Noufer

    So what is the mechanism that is causing all of these storms to split before arrival in northern Utah? I thought I recall you saying it’s common early season, bu was wondering why.

  • Scott Toller

    Looks like the perfect storm could be combining just south of the Wasatch with this splitting system. The NOAA grid forecast is calling for 1-2 feet in mountains of eastern Arizona (Sunrise ski area) The models you got me addicted to show moisture from the south and this splitting system arriving about the same time. Wondered if you have looked at or could comment on if this megadump might really happen?