Sunday midnight update:
The system still on track. It’s not impressive, it’s splitting at it moves in. I still think 3-10″ is the most likely scenario for most Wasatch mountains by Wednesday morning. The usual suspects like the Cottonwoods could see a bit more, especially if lake enhancement takes place.
GFS and Euro both give us a break with storms mostly heading to our north for the second half of the week, then both models try to bring storms back into the area sometime after mid-month. Full update late Sunday morning or afternoon… depending on when I wake up. 😉
Not too much new to talk about today. System will move into the region late on Monday into Tuesday morning. This is not a particularly strong system, and there is still the chance it could split before reaching Utah. It does have plenty of cold air with it. Snow levels will drop to valley floors. Right now, I still think 3-10″ is the most like scenario for the Wasatch. The wildcard will be lake effect, there’s a chance we could get some action southeast of the GSL behind the front.
Update either tonight or Sunday AM… WSF
A very weak system is bringing some light snow showers to northern Utah this Friday morning. A break this weekend before our next system brings us snow and cold temperatures to start next week.
Snow showers this morning and continued cold temperatures. Most Utah resorts are looking quite wintry today. Up north, despite an askew webcam, the parking lot of Powder Mountain looks like mid-winter:
Just to the south, Snowbasin’s Needle Lodge shows a similar scene:
Up in the Cottonwoods, some light flakes are flying. A look at Alta’s Sugarloaf cam:
And despite the fact that this current wave is much too far north to bring them additional snow, Brian Head is busy making their own to add to what they saw earlier this week:
Beautiful scenes to behold!
As for the forecast, northern Utah will continue to see some snow showers this morning before clearing up later today. The weekend should be warmer and drier.
Next system is moving into the area late Monday into Tuesday. This system has a lot of similar attributes to our storm from early this week. Because of that, models have been flirting with the idea of it diving down to our west and then splitting. As I said on Wednesday’s post… Déjà vu. At this point, all models hold this system together well enough to bring us at least some snowfall. Even if it does stay intact, it’s not a major storm. Probably something in the 3-10″ range for most mountains, but it will pack more cold air to allow continued snow making. With the cold air, we will also have the chance for a bit of lake effect behind the front. Way too early to know any details, but looks like we’ll at least have a chance for it on Tuesday of next week.
Yesterday, the long range seemed to be utter chaos. But the most recent runs of the GFS and Euro have gone back to having similar outcomes with a trough potentially impacting the region sometime around November 14th. This will probably be gone in the next runs, but hopefully they’ve latched on to something. Like I said yesterday, not really seeing any signs of persistent ridging yet.
As for resort opening days, it’s hard to say for sure, but my guess is that the cold temperatures this week and forecasted for next week, combined with at least some natural snow, will allow most resorts to at least open a run or two for their predicted opening dates. We may have to wait for some bigger storms before off piste skiing and backcountry become viable options.