A few snow showers will remain in the area today thru Friday with cool conditions. Warmer and drier this weekend before the next cold system brings a chance of snow to the area early next week.
Some light snow is taking place in a few locations along the Wasatch Front this morning. Not much going on in the mountains. This last storm really was comical in a masochistic sort of way. The Ruby Mountains just a few hours to our west got 1-2 feet, the Sierra got 1+ foot with 30″ reported in Mammoth. The Tetons did ok, the mountains of southwestern Montana did well. And today, much of Colorado is getting hammered. Literally, everything that could go wrong for Utah, did. The storm stalled, fizzled, split perfectly right around Utah, before reorganizing and strengthening again to our east. Sometimes you just gotta shake your head and laugh…
Right now we do have good snow-making conditions with ample cold air. That cold air will be refreshed on Thursday night with a weak trailing wave that could bring a few snow showers to the far north. This weekend we will warm up and dry out ahead of the next trough.
I feel like I’m living in deja vu…. been transported in time to one week ago. This upcoming trough looks incredibly similar to how our current trough looked in the models middle of last week. Both systems have even been progged to move into the Great Basin on the same day of the week (Monday). Right now, the system looks pretty good. But so did this last system when we were 5 days out, and we all know how that turned out. So let’s just watch and hope this one doesn’t dive down the coast to our west and fall apart like its predecessor. At this point we’ll just say we have a chance for snow late Monday and Tuesday of next week with cold temperatures likely.
Not much agreement. If you’re somebody who like to watch the GFS, you’ve probably seen it showing a parade of storms moving into the west coast toward mid-month. Nice to see, but unfortunately, it doesn’t have much support from other models quite yet. I’m just going to focus on the short term and let the long range work itself out on its own.
Yesterday I talked about El Nino… there seemed to be some confusion regarding exactly what “no correlation” means. The best way to think of it is that in a normal year (no El Nino/La Nina), you can say that we have a 33% chance of a below average season, 33% chance of around average, and 33% chance of above average. No correlation means that historically, when you look at our total snowfall in El Nino or La Nina years, it doesn’t really change those percentages. It doesn’t mean that it has no affect on our weather, in El Nino years, we’ve often seen warmer temperatures with more frequent storms, but the end result doesn’t always mean more snowfall.
The distinction is that this year we don’t just have El Nino, we have a super El Nino. We’ve only had 2 winters in the last 65 years with comparable El Nino strengths. One (97-98) was a bit above average, while the other (82-83) was well above average. Two winters is not enough to definitively say there is a correlation, but it does give me hope that we can do well this winter if things come together. But, like any other winter, ANYTHING can happen and El Nino guarantees us NOTHING.