Déjà vu

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 at 7:30 am


A few snow showers will remain in the area today thru Friday with cool conditions.  Warmer and drier this weekend before the next cold system brings a chance of snow to the area early next week.


Some light snow is taking place in a few locations along the Wasatch Front this morning.  Not much going on in the mountains.  This last storm really was comical in a masochistic sort of way.  The Ruby Mountains just a few hours to our west got 1-2 feet, the Sierra got 1+ foot with 30″ reported in Mammoth.  The Tetons did ok, the mountains of southwestern Montana did well.  And today, much of Colorado is getting hammered.  Literally, everything that could go wrong for Utah, did.  The storm stalled, fizzled, split perfectly right around Utah, before reorganizing and strengthening again to our east.  Sometimes you just gotta shake your head and laugh…

Right now we do have good snow-making conditions with ample cold air.  That cold air will be refreshed on Thursday night with a weak trailing wave that could bring a few snow showers to the far north.  This weekend we will warm up and dry out ahead of the next trough.

I feel like I’m living in deja vu…. been transported in time to one week ago.  This upcoming trough looks incredibly similar to how our current trough looked in the models middle of last week.  Both systems have even been progged to move into the Great Basin on the same day of the week (Monday).  Right now, the system looks pretty good.  But so did this last system when we were 5 days out, and we all know how that turned out.   So let’s just watch and hope this one doesn’t dive down the coast to our west and fall apart like its predecessor.  At this point we’ll just say we have a chance for snow late Monday and Tuesday of next week with cold temperatures likely.

Long Range:

Not much agreement.  If you’re somebody who like to watch the GFS, you’ve probably seen it showing a parade of storms moving into the west coast toward mid-month.  Nice to see, but unfortunately, it doesn’t have much support from other models quite yet.  I’m just going to focus on the short term and let the long range work itself out on its own.

El Nino: 

Yesterday I talked about El Nino… there seemed to be some confusion regarding exactly what “no correlation” means.  The best way to think of it is that in a normal year (no El Nino/La Nina), you can say that we have a 33% chance of a below average season, 33% chance of around average, and 33% chance of above average.  No correlation means that historically, when you look at our total snowfall in El Nino or La Nina years, it doesn’t really change those percentages.  It doesn’t mean that it has no affect on our weather, in El Nino years, we’ve often seen warmer temperatures with more frequent storms, but the end result doesn’t always mean more snowfall.

The distinction is that this year we don’t just have El Nino, we have a super El Nino.  We’ve only had 2 winters in the last 65 years with comparable El Nino strengths.  One (97-98) was a bit above average, while the other (82-83) was well above average.  Two winters is not enough to definitively say there is a correlation, but it does give me hope that we can do well this winter if things come together.  But, like any other winter, ANYTHING can happen and El Nino guarantees us NOTHING.


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9 thoughts on “Déjà vu

  1. Austin Baird


    There you go, WSF commenters. I think I got all the stupidity out of the way so that nobody else has to.

  2. Steve Noufer

    The good news is that last storm taught me not to get excited until the snow is actually falling. So, no resulting huge disappointment. It was a bit ridiculous how surrounded northern Utah was by snow.

  3. JoMaMa

    I think when writing about or discussing El Nino, the most pessimistic approach is the best approach…these a-holes who keep talking about El Nino and how it’s going to be the biggest snow year could very well be JINXING US!!!!!

  4. michael ross

    May have been a dud as to what it was “supposed” to do. But it’s been snowing big fat happy flakes outside my office window in Kimball Junction off and on all afternoon. Certainly gets the hopes up as to what “might” happen.

  5. Steve Noufer

    NWS says the Canadian model has next storm acting like this one. GFS and EC still have decent storm. Hope the Canucks are wrong.

    1. Wasatch Snow Forecast

      Yeah… I suppose the good news is that the Canadian model is generally the least accurate of the three. But like I said this morning, it looks a lot like the last trough, so it certainly makes sense that this is a reasonable solution.

  6. Evan ButtPicking Promale Thaye

    Evan first and foremost, you are a queer, rather a promale anti fem fuck. I do applaud you for performing the 10 illuminati trials. I hiked Tipanogas! And dammit there was dew as expected from the mud lords, and snow priests. Thanks for the lamb shit and anti genesis shit because my son and daughter both got momentum to hop on a rail we sawed of from nik. you are a mysogenistic pig fem boy, i mean promale whore, and i was curious on how cuspid is doing? why in the living lamb did you give her the bullshark testosterone pills. its her 6th birthday for lambs sake. fuck u evan, and how is the moons explosion finna affect our weather? i noticed temps were in the high 100s 2day so hopefully we get more into the 90s range. thanks but no thanks,, you porn faggot.

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