Not Ideal

Monday, November 2, 2015 at 7:33 am

Monday update:

This system, which a few days ago was looking significant, continues to look worse in the models.  Really disappointing.  Here is the current map of expected snowfall for the west:


Just a few days ago, there was a lot more “pink” in the mountains of Utah.  Now, the Sierras, the Northern Rockies, the Tetons, and even Colorado are going to do alright while Utah looks to get the short end of the stick.  Snow should begin on Tuesday and continue at time into Wednesday. Right now I think amounts will remain under a few inches for most locations.  A few favored spots could still see upwards of 6″ or so… but nowhere near the possibilities we were showing just a few days ago.  BUMMER.

The good news is that there will still be colder air for snowmaking through the work week.  The weekend looks warmer and drier.  Then another system will push in early next week for another chance for snow.  Hopefully we will finally get some luck on our side.





Storm will move into the area late Monday night with snow in the Wasatch on Tuesday.  Much colder air behind this system.


Not a lot of great news today.  The models have been trending slower, with the precip getting hung up even further north.  The storm then pivots and weakens as it moves east.  By the time, precipitation finally reaches the Wasatch, it will be much shorter lived and less intense than originally expected.  Here is a map depicting the heaviest precip to our west (Sierra Nevada) and to our north (S. Idaho and Tetons):


Total accumulations will therefore not be as high as hoped.  At this time it looks like totals by Wednesday evening of 3-8″ in the high Wasatch with 6-12″ in a few favored locations. 

I wish I had better news today but unfortunately the anxiety I’ve been sharing about not liking this storm was justified.  There was just too much that could go wrong.

The good news is that even though totals won’t be as high, the temperatures will drop significantly late Tuesday through the rest of the week, which should allow snow-making.


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  • Chan

    Are the chances better we end up on the higher end or lower end of your forcast numbers?

  • Juan Valdez

    Am I going to have to find a goat to sacrifice? I want copious amounts of snow this year!

    Thanks for all that you do.

  • Aaron Rice

    “the anxiety I’ve been sharing about not liking this storm was justified. There was just too much that could go wrong.” You talk about the storm like it’s already happened and it still hasn’t even started.

    • You’re right. It absolutely could surprise us yet with good snow. But the trends have been poor, at least compared to some of the earlier projections.

  • It should be noted that it is November 1st…. This storm is still the biggest we’ve seen so far. Don’t get too down just because I’m a bit bummed 😉

  • Dirty Mike n da boyz

    Dang it I almost forgot the feeling of disappointment I had so many times last winter.
    Hopefully the gods of winter surprise us all with a huge storm next week

  • John Huggins

    It’s like a recipe to maximize page views:

    Day 5: Big storm possible Day 4:Big storm possible Day 3: HUGE SNOWFALL PREDICTION Day 2: Models are doing an about-face Day 1: Flurries

    • Yep. I hacked each global forecast model one by one to make their outputs look enticing in order to maximize page views.

      • John Huggins

        That would be pretty nuts! The truth, however, is obvious: We have angered Ullr. We must pay penance, or suffer another season.

        • Db

          With 4 years of below average snowfall We must have done something significant.

  • vcize

    We get tickets to a bunch of other resorts with our Snowbasin season pass and were planning on taking a trip to Telluride the weekend before President’s Day. Should we cancel that and go to Tahoe instead (we also get tickets to Sierra at Tahoe through our Snowbasin passes)? Is Telluride going to get the effects of an el nino like California?

    • Db

      IMO, getting worried on Nov 2nd about snowfall ANYWHERE is a bit of overreacting. since a person is not even capable of making a single (and amazing) snowflake, predicting where they will fall and how much is a guessing game that can only be looked at a few days ahead of time. With only days to predict, (and many times inaccurately) there is no way to know what’s ahead late next week. just sit back and enjoy. You never know, Mother Nature may turn on the spigot to the point your begging with your life she turns it off!!

  • Florida Sam

    It was 93 today here in Florida…. 93 ….. Carry on…..

  • Floyd Teter

    Curses! Foiled again! Back to working on a Wasatch snowmaggedon. Victory will be mine!!!