A weak, splitting system is moving through today with snow showers continuing this afternoon into tonight. Light accumulations. After a nice weekend, a stronger, colder system moves in Monday and Tuesday of next week with more significant accumulations possible.
Today our weak splitter is entering the region. It’s taking awhile, but eventually showers should develop and become enhanced this afternoon behind the front as the flow turns more northwesterly. Snow levels should be at about 8,000 feet this morning and gradually fall to below 7,000 feet by tonight. Yesterday I said 2-4″ above 8,000’… looking at the data today, I think even that might be optimistic… 1-3″ might be more reasonable, perhaps some areas favored in the northwest flow could get higher amounts if we’re lucky. Here is the total snowfall through tomorrow morning:
A few inches at best… We should clear out on Friday and have very good weather for the Halloween holiday.
A stronger and colder system is still looking good for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Right now it looks like the best snowfall will come late Monday thru Tuesday morning. Snow levels this time will drop at least down to bench locations and perhaps some valley floors. Here is the same snowfall output including next week’s storm:
We are just entering that 5-day window of confidence in some of the details. Right now it looks like 6-12″ for the high elevations would be a safe bet, but there could be an opportunity for more if things come together right for us.
These maps use model data to give a probability of receiving more than 6 and 12 inches respectively:
You can see that most mountain locations are almost guaranteed to see 6″ or more, and 12″ is a high probability for some favored locations of the Wasatch and Uintas. There is also a chance that the GSL could get involved behind the front and enhance totals for some areas — we’ll have to watch for that.
As mentioned earlier, this is a cold storm so the snow will have a low water content. Ideally, I would like to see early storms with higher water content because that wet snow really does a good job filling in the cracks and laying a stable base layer… but I suppose we shouldn’t be too picky.
Check out Brian Head this morning! The southern split of this system is producing down south!