Winter trying to turn the ignition on

Saturday, October 24, 2015 at 8:01 am

Sunday update:

Not too much new today.  Weak storm moves in tonight with a few showers and high elevation snow.  A dusting at most.   Next storm is still splitting with the best energy heading to our south.  Still, we should see showers with snow above 7-8k feet on Thursday.  A few inches max.  Still nothing major…  Pray for snow! WSF


A pattern shift over the next week or two will bring in cooler temps with a few chances for snowfall in the mountains of Utah.


The good news is that we have some more interesting winter-ish weather to talk about today. It may not be major, but it’s a start.

The first system is timing for this Monday (10/26) and is generally going to be weak.  Right now it looks like it’s main impacts will be to cool us down a few degrees and bring some showers to the area.  Snow levels will generally be high (above 8k feet) and accumulations will probably remain in the dusting range.  Here is the forecasted snowfall amounts from this first storm:


You can see only an inch or two max in the high Uinta and Northern Wasatch.

The second storm is more interesting as it incorporates some moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Olaf.  Unfortunately, the main system splits well to our west with the southern branch moving through Utah and closing off around the 4 corners.  This will bring the mountains of Utah even cooler air with snow levels potentially dropping down to 7k feet on Thursday into Friday (10/29 -10/30).  Here are snowfall totals through 10/31, including storm #1 and storm #2:


The high elevations of the Uintas certainly stand a chance to see decent snowfall along with the high mountains of south-central Utah.  The high Wasatch has a chance for a few inches as well in this second system.

After Halloween, the models generally hinting at active weather for the Pacific NW.  The GFS is more zonal and keeps us on the southern periphery.  The Euro is more amplified and spills more moisture and cold air into Utah with the potential for more snow.  This Euro pattern would be a good one because it could potentially tap into the still warm waters of the GSL… this time of year is the best for lake effect, but you need cold air first.

In summary, winter is trying to start its engine, but rather than roaring to life like a Ferrari, it’s looking to start like an old Ford Pinto.  The potential for colder air as we head into November is promising, but honestly, anything will feel cold after what is likely to be the warmest October on record.   Even though none of these systems look major, at least with some storm action, there is the potential for one of these suckers to surprise us. Stay tuned…


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  • Steve Noufer

    According to last few runs of GFS, some good storms about 10 days out. Hmmmm….. 10 days out? That sounds familiar somehow.

    • Yep. In general, the GFS, Euro and other global models are all in agreement in a cold, active pattern developing over the first few days of November. But, I’m certainly not putting too much faith in it until we’re a bit closer. Hopefully the weak systems next week help to pave the way. It’ll come!