Not much change from yesterday… Still expecting a weak system with a few showers on Monday and hoping for another shot at snow just before Halloween.
Elsewhere, Hurricane Patricia became the strongest tropical cyclone ever today with max sustained winds over 200mph. The bad news is it’s heading toward Mexico and will likely make landfall just south of Puerto Vallarta today. All thanks to extra warm water brought to you by El Niño. WSF
Generally dry and warm weather thru the weekend. A weak system will bring a chance for showers next Monday and Tuesday. Potential for another system late next week although details are sketchy right now. Overall, pretty boring.
Welp, we will be high and dry for the next few days. Another gorgeous fall weekend. (I’m getting really sick of this gorgeous weather s*%#)
Models generally backtracked on the idea of a full pattern change, which feels a lot like last year when pattern changes would be hinted at in the long-range, then vanish as we got closer. I’m not just a forecaster, I’m also a die-hard skier and watching those pattern changes disappear hurt my soul a bit last year. My wife has been pointing out that I’m getting more and more grey hair and it’s dawned on me that it’s probably the anguish of 4 years of below average snowfall.
Still, it’s not all bad news. We will have a weak system early next week (Monday and Tuesday) that will bring a chance for a few showers. Then the remnants of Hurricane Olaf could make for an interesting scenario in the days just before Halloween. Models haven’t been able to agree but it does seem like there’s at least a chance it could bring us some snow. It’s a long shot, but how perfect would that be if Olaf delivered winter to Utah….
(Side story: I have to admit, I kept seeing #frozen being used by hurricane forecasters when tracking Olaf on social media, I didn’t understand what the word “frozen” had to do with a tropical system. I googled the words “Olaf” and “Frozen” together and all my questions were answered. Oh, the blissful ignorance that comes with not having kids! )
This map shows the current forecasted snowfall for Utah over the next 10 days:
Several inches for the high Uintas, a couple inches for the high peaks of the Wasatch, but certainly not enough to get us skiing/boarding/riding.
Who knows…? As we head into November, model ensembles seem to favor ridging more than anything else. Remember, as I said back in late September, El Nino often means warmer and drier than normal October and November with the tempo not picking up until December. So far, we are on pace for our warmest ever October. We may need further patience to get us through November as well.