Showery Weekend ahead!

Friday, October 16, 2015 at 6:44 am

Sunday update:

Storm so far is going as expected. Yesterday was showery and cool, but the snow level remained above 11k feet.  Today we will see the cooler portion moving into the region with the flow changing from southerly to westerly.   Snow levels will drop tonight down to 8-9k feet.  Anywhere from a dusting to a few inches up high will be possible by the time we clear out on Tuesday.  Just another tease…

Lingering moisture could give us a chance for showers through much of next week.  Two days ago, models briefly came into agreement on a decent system for next weekend, but now have abandoned that idea. Bummer! We are really struggling to get the trough to progress inland. As of right now, our hopes of a decent system look to be pushed back to the last few days of the month.  At least we have cooled down and have at least some action to keep us occupied until then… WSF



Two fall systems will impact region this weekend. Showers will begin in Utah late Friday night and should continue through at least Monday with cooling temps.  Light accumulations of snow are possible way up high on Monday.


The first of two systems is pushing north into Nevada and Arizona today and will push into Utah tonight.  Showers likely across the region on Saturday.  Due to the warm origins of this system, the snow levels will likely be at or above the high peaks on Saturday.

On Sunday, a second system will move in out of the west with cooler air and more showers that will continue into Monday.  This time snow levels will lower and should fall to 8000 feet or so on Monday. A couple inches are possible in the highest elevations, probably not enough to ski but I’m sure somebody will try (I’m looking at you, Matt C and Hannah B).  Here’s a look at the two systems, #1 in the desert southwest, #2 in the pacific heading toward the west coast:


Much cooler air with high temperatures dropping 15-20 degrees by early next week!  Certainly nothing major, but it will be nice to have some showers, snowflakes and more seasonable temps.

Long range:

The long range is driving me crazy.  The operational model runs can’t seem to agree.  What does seem obvious is that the pattern will be more active than the first half of October (not saying all that much).  Latest Euro run had a decent system for next weekend (October 23-26).  The GFS has been flip flopping on individual systems but has been consistent in a somewhat more active pattern.

October is the worst month statistically for model accuracy and it looks like we are following that trend.  Time will tell.  Stay tuned!


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  • Db

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the jet stream need to start dropping down before we can expect the waves of storms to happen? Until then aren’t cold temps and snowmaking our real friends except for the occasional storm? Just trying to get a grasp on what to look for.