Fall (finally) returns!

Wednesday, October 14, 2015 at 8:24 am

Thursday update:

Nothing new.  Showers this weekend into early next week with light snow accumulations above 9,000 feet.  Cooler temperatures.  Major pattern change still a possibility for the last week of October but it’s still out of the range of most models and therefore confidence is low.  For right now, we are still watching and hoping true winter arrives before Halloween.  WSF



Warm weather for the next few days before two weak systems cool us off this weekend and bring a chance for showers and a bit of high elevation snow.  A more significant pattern change still possible for the last week of the October.


The warm and boring weather we’ve been seeing for quite some time will continue for a few more days.  Then, a low pressure system which has been spinning its wheels off the SoCal coast for the better part of the last couple weeks is going to eject inland (again) this weekend and bring some showers to mostly the southern half of Utah on Saturday.  A second system is pushing in from the northwest and will sweep through Utah on Sunday into Monday.  This system is cooler but still relatively weak.  It is also likely to split as it moves across the Great Basin.

We will cool down this weekend with further cooling into early next week.  Scattered showers are likely and the mountains will see snow levels fall to 8000 feet or so by late Sunday.  A couple inches are possible way up high by Monday morning.  As mentioned, the main benefit of this system will be more Fall-like temperatures.  Temps in the valleys will drop from near 80 on Friday to the low to mid 60s on Monday.  Mountains likely won’t make it out of the 40s early next week.  It might sound cool, but this is about normal for this time of year.

Long range:

Most of the activity will clear out by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week and most models favor a break in the action for the latter half of next week.  Things start to get a bit more interesting after about Oct-23.  Both the Euro and GFS ensembles are indicating west coast troughing.   Here are height anomalies currently:


The “warm” colors over Utah indicate high pressure.  We’ve seen a lot of these types of colors over the last few weeks.  Actually, over the last few years.  Also, notice the aforementioned low pressure off the SoCal coast.

This is the forecasted anomalies for Oct-27:


The general pattern is west coast troughing with a ridge over the eastern US.  It’s too early to know for sure what this troughing will bring with it.  One would assume colder temperatures and chances for storms, but right now this is outside the 10-day forecast window of models.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on this over the next 5 days or so as it starts to come into range of the models.   Let’s hope winter is just lulling us to sleep with benign weather before it attacks with a vengeance!


I think I drank too much coffee…. Better go get another cup!


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  • Florida Sam

    Love it. This post was just what I needed today

    Winter is coming Jon Snow

  • JB

    Where do you get your anomaly maps from? The ones you show are way more legible than any map I can find.