We’ve had quite an impressive stretch of much warmer than average temperatures across the region. We should have a couple more days of warmth before a cold front moves through the area on Thursday night. It will bring showers to most of Northern and Central Utah, along with the threat of snow once again. Probably just another dusting on the peaks as this is a cool, but not cold, storm with only modest moisture.
Temperatures will fall by 20+ degrees by Friday and remain much closer to normal through the weekend. Right now it looks like we dry out by Friday night with mostly dry weather for Saturday. Models hinting at another chance for precipitation returning Sunday into early next week as another low pressure system drops into the region. Not too much agreement between the ECMWF and the GFS on this over the past few days. We’ll keep an eye on it. Overall, after a two week hiatus, it’s starting to look like a return to Fall is in the cards.
El Nino continues to strengthen. Record values still a possibility by late October or early November. While there is virtually no correlation between Northern Utah snowfall and El Nino, I do think that a stronger event increases our odds just a touch.