Generally quiet weather on tap

Monday, September 21, 2015 at 7:52 am

Wednesday update:

It looks like dry weather with strong ridging will dominate the region through the weekend.  Ten days ago, I said we were likely to have seen our last 90-degree day in SLC.  I said this because it would have taken record temps for us to see 90 again.  Sure enough, we’ll be flirting with records this week and SLC may hit 90 again.

Next week, we’ll likely cool down.  Models, however, have been very inconsistent for several days now in determining what specifically to expect.  There are a couple waves of energy which could bring us clouds and maybe even showers, but certainly nothing major.  Until something solid develops in the models… posts will be short and relatively infrequent.  WSF


A low pressure system with tropical origins is pushing north into Arizona today into tomorrow.  This is going to spread moisture into mostly Southern Utah, with showers likely on Tuesday-Wednesday.  For northern Utah, we’ll see a slight chance for some showers on Tuesday night.  But it looks like most of the moisture will stay south and east of the Wasatch.

Later this week into next weekend looks dry, warm, and pleasant.  Another great window to get into the mountains and enjoy the fall colors.

Next week we could see a trough move into the Great Basin with showers possible in the Northern Rockies, perhaps extending down into Northern Utah.  Details right now are vague this far out, but it does look like at the very least, we’ll see some cooler air.  More details as we get closer…

No change in the Nino 3.4 region this week (still at +2.3C), but other Nino regions experienced further warming — including region 1+2.  This is important mostly because this region had been cooling and was significantly cooler than 1997 numbers, but is now catching back up.  Right now, I think El Nino will fall short of being the strongest on record, but it is almost guaranteed to be in the top 3.   As always, none of this really means all that much for Northern Utah as our ENSO correlation is weak.



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  • JB

    So here’s a question for you. What about that persistent ridge we’ve had for the last couple years now? I’ve read that it’s breaking down, but how may the El Niño event effect it this winter? Since the oceans will remain warm for an unknown time frame, could the ridge redevelop after El Niño subsides? I know it’s all conjecture since this ridge/blob event was unprecedented. But, I’d like to know some of the theory behind where we stand that not from the mouths of government officials.

    • Good question. The more the blob/ridge has been studied, the more it appears that the blob was a child of persistent ridging rather than vice versa. Right now there are definitely signs of the “blob” cooling. El Nino is the bully on the playground, so even if the blob doesn’t totally dissipate, I think El Nino will be a much stronger influence on overall weather patterns than the blob. Next year, there’s a good chance we’ll flip into a La Nina and the blob is highly unlikely to persist in a strong La Nina season. As you said, nobody knows… but my gut tells me that El Nino is going to dictate whether we are above or below normal far more than the blob.