Wet week ahead

Sunday, September 13, 2015 at 7:59 am

Tuesday update:

Still no change to the forecast.  Periodic rain thru Thursday with snow levels falling on Wednesday down to near 9,000 feet.  An inch or two of wet snow is possible on the peaks… Dry and warmer weather in store for the weekend.

Monday Update:

All the information from yesterday’s post (below) is still pertinent.  It will be a wet week ahead for Utah from today thru Thursday.  Right now it looks like Wednesday will be the wettest day as a relatively strong cold front moves through.  As mentioned yesterday, snow levels will drop down perhaps as low as 9000 feet (maybe even lower…), so snowfall is possible in the high elevations of both the Uinta and Wasatch.  I don’t think it will be more than an inch or two.

Today’s El Niño update from the CPC shows that as I said last week, it’s normal for a bit of waxing and waning, but the overall trend remains strengthening.  3.4 anomalies jumped from +2.1 to +2.3C  over the past week so we are still on course for a near-record event.  The largest effects of El Niño probably won’t be felt until December, and mostly to our south and west.  As I always say, we’ll just have to wait and see how Utah fares.

Enjoy the Fall-like weather and cooler temperatures…  The heat of this past weekend likely won’t be back for 8 months!



Today (Sunday) will likely be our last 90+ degree day in SLC until late May or early June of 2016.  Congratulations… we made it through the dog days of summer…

On Monday, moisture will start streaming into the area thanks to the remnants of old Hurricane Linda being pulled up in a southwest flow ahead of a trough moving into the Pacific NW.  You can see the moisture already to our west and south:


By Monday afternoon, scattered showers and storms are possible nearly statewide.  Moisture continues to increase and the threat for even more widespread showers possible on Tuesday.

The first in a series of cold fronts will pass through on Monday.  These fronts are associated with a trough that is settling into the intermountain west for the upcoming week.  Right now, it looks like one wave will push through on Tuesday, another on Wednesday, and perhaps another late on Thursday.  Each one will kick up showers and cool us down further.  By themselves, these would be weak fronts.  But since we have the moisture from Linda to work with, it should allow for plenty of rain across the region from Monday afternoon thru Thursday night.

Total QPF is actually quite impressive:


I think the amounts in this map are a bit overdone (a max precip of nearly 5″???)… But still, it looks like widespread amounts of over an inch of rain are possible, particularly in the Wasatch.  Good news, as we could use a good soaking!

Because the temps are gradually going to cool throughout the week, by Wednesday and Thursday, snow will be possible above 10,000 feet (perhaps a bit lower at times).  This includes the highest peaks of the Wasatch, but most noticeably the Uintas.  Here is a map of forecasted snowfall:


It’s just an inch or two… but it’s still nice to see.  If you’re planning on being at very high elevations on Wed/Thurs, keep an eye out for snowflakes!

By next weekend, it looks like the storm track will retreat northward and we will warm back up a bit.  It should be a gorgeous fall weekend.  The leaves are starting to change (I’ve posted some photos on Facebook page), so get out and enjoy yourselves!

At this point, long range models are hinting at the storm track dipping back south for the last week of September… we shall see.   All in all, things are definitely picking up in the Wx world… typical of this time of year, but still fun to watch.


P.S.  Fires are absolutely raging right now in California.  Not much in the way of rain forecasted for them either, and some of the troughs passing to the north this weekend could just pick up the winds.  4 years of drought are taking their toll.  The latest fire is the Valley Fire near Napa/Sonoma/Clear Lake…. Incredible images of destruction of property in Middletown, CA overnight.  You can follow the fire by searching for #ValleyFire on social media.  Hopefully the rains come early and often this fall to Cali — unfortunately, typical El Niños don’t get the southern jet going until December.

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  • Jacob Wood

    I’m loving all the fall foliage showing up on the front face of the Wasatch lately. Looking at webcam archived footage from this time last year, such as the footage from this cam (http://www.workzonecam.com/projects/churchofjesuschristoflatterdaysaints the foliage is turning several weeks earlier than last year. The mountain didn’t start turning last year until the beginning of October, at least in Provo. Can’t speak for other locations along the Wasatch Front. That’s a 3 week difference! Last year’s snow totals were so dismal. Hopefully the leaves turning sooner this year is a sign that we won’t repeat last year.