Well, over the past 48 hours the models have at least given me some ammunition for forecasting something besides “warm and sunny”. Although, warm and sunny weather will prevail through the upcoming weekend, however, the remnants of Hurricane Linda could grant us some showers early next week.
Linda is currently spinning in the Eastern Pacific, a few hundred miles west of Cabo. Forecast models generally take her north over the next few days, weakening as she encounters more shear and cooler water temperatures. By late in the weekend, a weak trough will push in from the northwest. This will pull up moisture from Linda. Timing of this whole thing is delicate. If the southwest flow ahead of the trough is too weak or mis-timed, then we likely won’t see moisture. Or if Linda veers too far west, it will be hard to grab any of her moisture. But, as it stands, models show us getting a decent fetch of moisture into the state. Expect a chance for showers and storms nearly statewide on Monday and Tuesday (9/14-9/15). Cooler temperatures will also prevail after the weekend.
After the moisture surge next week, model disagreement increases. If you’re a GFS watcher, you may have seen today’s 06z run showing a relatively strong, cold trough dropping into our area the following weekend (Sept 18-20). It’s a solution that would most certainly bring the Wasatch our first snow, if it were to play out. But unfortunately, it doesn’t have the support of the Euro or most of it’s own ensembles — so until then, we are left dreaming…
What does seem obvious to me is the fluid nature of the pattern. Typically, this time of year is still prone to the stubborn ridges that typically dominate summer. But patterns are changing quickly with plenty of trough progression in the long-wave patterns. We’ve seen our share of stubborn ridges over the past few winters, so perhaps this bodes well for the upcoming season.
I will likely do a quick update tomorrow (Thursday)…
P.S. The strongest hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific was another Linda. This storm formed on September 9, 1997… Exactly 18 years ago during the last strong El Nino autumn. Winds eventually peaked at 185 mph. For awhile, 1997 Linda had been forecasted to impact southern California, but it eventually veered west and dissipated. Today’s Linda has also been forecasted by some models to move toward California, but will likely turn west instead like her namesake storm. This Linda is much weaker, with winds maxing at 85 mph rather than 185 mph, but still… the similarities are kinda spooky!