GFS and Euro have both been indicating the possibility for a trough to move into the PNW and Northern Rockies early next week that could pull up some moisture into the area. 06z GFS was very bullish with precip. Way too early to know exactly what this will mean, but the Sept 15-16 timeframe bears watching.
A cool trough passed through the northern Rockies over the past few days. The trough didn’t dig quite as deep as models were projecting earlier last week, which meant that while states and provinces to our north saw some high elevation snow, the Wasatch was left with mostly just breezy weather. Whitefish Mountain got a good makeover on Saturday — before and after pics:
High pressure and warm temperatures look to take control this week and continue through at least mid-month. At this point, I don’t see any appreciable chances of precip in the models. It is possible that a tropical cyclone could enhance a monsoonal moisture surge at some point, or that another cool trough could sneak in the back door after mid-month.
El Niño is still going strong. 3.4 region anomalies backed off a touch this week to 2.1C. Normal waxing and waning is normal and I’d still expect SST to continue to warm through at least the end of October. Not that any of this really means that much for us in Utah. However, models have been responding to the strong Nino by showing much higher than normal precip this winter for California, where it is desperately needed. What will happen will happen, and when it does, I’ll be there to forecast it and help you plan your powder days. As always.