Thursday 9/3 update:
A cool Fall-like trough is still going to affect the region this weekend. Right now, it looks like it won’t be quite as cool as models were suggesting earlier this week and moisture is still marginal. We will still have a slight chance for snowflakes on the highest peaks, but it’s certainly not a likelihood. Still, for a day or two, it will feel much cooler which will be refreshing. Next week we will warm back up.
The Pacific tropical cyclone season remains remarkably active. Kilo has crossed the dateline and is now a typhoon and will wander toward Japan. Ignacio passed north of Hawaii (which is rare for a tropical system) and will gradually weaken. Jimena is going to head just east of Hawaii and will weaken as well before being gradually phased into the westerlies. Now, we have tropical storm Kevin off the Mexico coast. That will head north and eventually help spread moisture into Arizona and New Mexico. All this activity… not much direct effects on Utah… yet.
If you missed it on Facebook, here is a great article expressing several climate scientists opinion on the Blob’s affect (or lack thereof) on our winter:
Remember, nobody really knows for sure. We are all in the same boat, waiting to see what the winter has in store for us.
According to the meteorological calendar, today (Sept 1) is the first day of fall. We are really heading toward winter now!
Appropriately, we have a very fall-like trough in the Pacific Northwest that will gradually drop into the Great Basin by this weekend. Here is a look at height anomalies for Saturday, Sept 5:
As mentioned yesterday, there is a chance that the highest elevations (above 9000 feet) of far Northern Utah will see a few snow showers this weekend. This certainly is not a guarantee at this point, but I’m telling you there’s a chance…
Obviously, even if we do get a dusting of snow on the high peaks, it doesn’t mean much as it will melt off quickly. But it would be nice to see, eh?
The main change will be much cooler temperatures. SLC highs which will top 90F today and tomorrow will drop significantly. Perhaps struggling to reach 70F on Sunday.
After labor day, it looks like the most likely scenario involves a big ridge building off the west coast and putting an end to the troughs moving into the western states. This might mean we see few more monsoonal moisture surges later this month. Perhaps a tropical system may even get involved.
It’s fall, occasional cool troughs will become the norm as we head through the next month or two… But true winter is unlikely to arrive anytime soon…