Deceptively Boring

Friday, August 28, 2015 at 8:24 am

If you look at the 7-day forecast for most of Utah, the next week looks just about as mundane as it gets.  Generally seasonable temperatures and only a slight chance for mostly high elevation precipitation through the period.  Seems pretty boring, right?


Yep, it is boring.  However, there is A LOT going on in the Pacific.  It may not affect us quite yet, but it’s hard to imagine that we won’t see some downstream effects at some point.

First, we’ve got the first fall-like trough of the year pushing into the Pac NW right now:


Northern and western Oregon as well as Washington state have been seeing much-needed showers this morning.   There was some hope earlier this week that this trough would sag far enough south to bring us cool air and maybe some showers, but that doesn’t look to be in the cards as the 4-corners high pressure will force this to eject northeast and away from Utah.  We’ll probably see a few clouds, maybe a few stray high elevation convective showers this weekend, and some breezy weather, but that’s it.  Hopefully this is the first of many troughs this winter!

Of course, there are many eyes on the tropical Pacific right now.  All the warm water associated with El Niño is allowing for constant development of tropical cyclones.  Here is a map for this weekend showing 3 distinct rotations in the Pacific:


Tropical cyclone #1 on the map is progged to move west toward Japan and develop into yet another Super Typhoon.  #2 is going to stay relatively weak and is forecasted to pass just north of Hawaii before generally dissipating as it encounters high pressure.  For the past 4 or 5 runs of the GFS, we’ve seen #3 forecasted to slowly start curving northeast and heading toward the California coast.  There is a distinct possibility that sometime around September 10, this system could effect the west coast — some model runs even suggesting it could maintain decent strength in doing so.  Of course, this is all out in “fantasy land”, but it’s an interesting possibility that will have to be watched over the upcoming week.

Of course, for most of us, none of this will have any bearing on our lives anytime soon.  But it’s worth noting.  This is probably the most active I’ve seen the Pacific in late August.

Next update will probably be Monday or Tuesday of next week…



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