May is over. Today (June 1) is the start of meteorological summer. May was very wet with most areas in the state ending with well above normal precipitation. This cool, showery weather helped to preserve our meager snowpack a bit longer than expected (still well below normal).
Mostly dry this week although scattered showers will be possible. A low pressure system will spin moisture up into Utah this weekend (June 5-7) with more widespread showers possible. Seasonably warm temps can be expected.
El Nino continues to exist in the Pacific and is strengthening with latest SST anomalies in the 3.4 region warming to +1.3C. This means that El Nino is moving from a weak state to a moderate strength. Projections right now have it ending up in a moderate to strong state as we start next winter.
It is important to remember that El Nino does not always mean good things for Northern Utah snowfall. While California and Southern Utah seem to do well, Northern Utah can go either way. Historically in strong El Nino events, we’ve done well (e.g. 1982-83), but we’ve also had moderate El Ninos that have been below average. As stated several times previously, I believe that the stronger El Nino gets, the higher our chances of a good winter become. We’ll continue to watch and update as the summer progresses….