Wednesday AM update:
Cooler air has arrived. On Thursday a reinforcing wave of cool air and even some snow will push in to the area. Right now it looks like an enhanced area of precipitation will develop somewhere between I-80 and I-70, which would put the Cottonwoods and PC on the northern edge. If we get under this band of precip, the mountain could see a few inches of snow. However, if the band sets up farther south, we could get zilch. I would set your expectations low, but perhaps if we get lucky, Thursday will feature some soft turns.
A break this weekend for your egg hunting pleasure. Right now it looks like we’ll have a series of systems next week, but their strength and track remain in question. The GFS has one system on Monday, and second one on its heels for Wednesday and another for late the following weekend. The EC, however, cuts off the first system and has it weakening and splitting as it moves east. This kinda throws a wrench in the track of any subsequent systems. In short, the EC doesn’t look nearly as promising for snowfall. Right now, I’m hoping the GFS has a better handle on things.
You may have given up on winter and skiing, but we need a late season storm cycle to ease the drought if nothing else. As I mentioned yesterday, the MJO is now favorable for the first time in what feels like years. The PNA index is going negative. The pattern is changing for the next 1-2 weeks, however, it’s Spring and storms just have a more difficult time forming this time of year. If only this happened mid-winter! WSF
P.S. How bad was March 2015? We were all hoping for a Miracle March that would pull us back from the depths of a horrid January and February period. The month had an auspicious start, with 10-25″ falling throughout the Wasatch in the first few days of the month. Then, high pressure took over and barely loosened its grip through the rest of the month. More warm temps. Hardly any more snow. Our storm last week was the only other snowfall we saw for the entire month. The UAC’s records for Alta-Guard show that the worst March on record since WWII was 35″ in 1956. If my calculations are correct, we saw somewhere between 33-36″ at Alta this March. We’ll have to see in the coming days what their official measurement is, but it’s possible that we set a new record minimum snowfall. Not what we needed coming off two previous near-record low months. January-March 2015 is far and away the worst such period in recorded history for the Wasatch Range. Ouch!
A warm day on Tuesday with increasingly strong winds. Cold front pushes through tonight with much colder temps on Wednesday. Precipitation looks unlikely with this first front, however a reinforcing wave could bring snow showers to the region on Thursday. Accumulations should remain light (an inch or two max).
A break this weekend with warming temps before another trough looks set to affect the area early next week (April 7-8). At this time the models have been trending weaker with this trough and bring in mostly just cold air and light showers.
The long range pattern remains progressive for the next couple weeks. If you look at GEFS mean heights, you can see that generally the pattern favors troughing. The “blue” areas on this map are indicative of troughing:
You can see that in general we are about to enter a pattern favorable for storms, so why none in the forecast? It’s Spring. The metaphorical well is starting to dry up. If this happened a month ago, things might have been different. It’s still possible that some of these systems come in deeper and stronger than expected, but at this point significant snow in the next 7-10 days looks unlikely.
At least the cold temps will help preserve existing snowfall for a bit longer….