Storm Day… Finally

Monday, March 23, 2015 at 6:28 am


Snow is falling in the mountains of Northern Utah today.  Snow will taper off this evening but could increase again on Tuesday as a second wave move through the far north.  Ridge builds in for late this week into the weekend, keeping us warm and dry.  Next storm possible middle of next week.


Our storm is here, showers are just starting with a few snowflakes showing up (as of 5:45 am) on the Snowbasin snow stake cam.  Here is a look at the radar starting to fill in at 5:45am:


By mid to late morning, a well-defined cold front should move through the area with intense precip rates and dropping snow levels (falling to 6,000 feet or lower).  Orographic showers will then continue this afternoon in a northwest flow with daytime heating hopefully helping to destabilize the atmosphere.  By midnight tonight, I think the Cottonwoods will have 4-8″ of snow.  PC and other resorts should see significantly less as they will not be favored by orographics — probably just 2-4″.  Last chair today should be good!

A second wave pushes in tomorrow (Tuesday) with additional accumulations possible, however this wave will mostly pass to our north so the best accumulations might be confined to the Idaho border.  Still, a few more inches will be possible.  That brings total accumulations by Wednesday morning to 6-12″ for the Cottonwoods.  PC resorts should see 2-5″ with 3-8″ total for Snowbasin/PowMow.

Here is the graphical look at the Cottonwoods…  First, from the 12km NAM:


In this model, the Upper Cottonwoods just sees 6″ through Wednesday morning.  But here is the 4km NAM:


In this higher resolution version, it receives up to 16″ of snow.  Now this is usually overdone, so I don’t think we’ll see that much.  But perhaps 12″ is possible if we get super lucky….  Gotta be optimistic.

High pressure takes control again by Wednesday afternoon and we warm up and dry out as we head into the weekend.

Long Range:

As of right now, both the GFS and EC show the ridge retrograding out into the eastern Pacific early next week.  That looks like it will allow a system to drop into the Great Basin middle of next week (around 4/1) .  As of right now, the GFS is mostly weak with leftovers whereas the Euro shows a decent system.  Too early to know which has a better handle.  Time will tell….


P.S.   Although a storm or two is in the forecast, it’s that time of year where we have to accept that the season is generally winding down.  As you’re all well aware, this has been a rough season.  In fact, as discussed last week, it could be the worst season ever in terms of total snowfall.  If you think it was tough as a skier/rider, imagine how it’s been for me to have to wake up every morning just to share more bad news…. NOT FUN!  However, I tried to stay positive and even add a bit of humor here and there.  I’ll still be forecasting as long as there is snow to forecast, but if you’ve been happy with the service provided by WSF this winter.  Please consider making a donation.  WSF is a free service but donations help to make it worthwhile for me to put in the hours required every day to make forecasts and answer questions — even just a few bucks help.

All donations are secure through PayPal and all major credit cards are accepted if you do not have a PayPal account.  Thanks so much!  -Evan

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  • Sal

    I’ve donated each of the last 3 years. Huge fan of what you do! Thanks so much for keeping things fun even in a horrible season like this. You definitely helped me cash in on the few powder days we did get.

  • Mark Smith

    Claire and I thoroughly appreciate all the work you put into the WSF. You have provided us with the most reliable and readable info to help us squeeze the most fun out of winter. As a result, we gave you a raise!

    Best regards,

  • Kent Stevens

    Count me in Evan your service helped me time my trip back in mid Jan. during the best storm of the season. I consider it an invaluable tool in timing my trips up from Oceanside. I will donate when I get home from work today. Kent

  • Jeffrey S.

    You do an awesome job, Evan! Thank you for your time and devotion to advising skiers and boarders about what to expect. And you always nail it!! My donation is on its way.

  • Steve

    i will be donating this afternoon. Hopefully after sking in the storm.

  • spo

    My good luck that I found WSF when Üllr was displeased with most of the west – your sense of humor makes it more bearable. Donation – done. Thanks!

  • Donated to thank you for your great writing and to make sure you keep it coming next year.

  • Laura

    Evan, you do a wonderful job. Me and my family truly appreciate the work and commitment it takes to produce these detailed forecasts and then to update them when there is actually active weather to report on. The few times there has been a good storm this season, your detailed forecast, humor and infectious enthusiasm made it that much more fun. We travel back and forth from NorCal to PC and knowing what we will, and will not, be seeing as far as snow fall is always helpful to us. Thank you!!

  • David

    Although small… I Donated 🙂 it did sorta burst my fantasy that you were the billionaire Christian Gray of the meteorological world… I had always hoped you’d sweep me off my feet and whisk me away to ski the Alps or something. No homo.

  • Mark

    Very grateful for this service. I only make one trip per year, but read the blog religiously every morning. Happy to donate.
    Question for you, Evan: Looking back to November or December (or even earlier), did you see anything in the models or other long term forecast tools that suggested that this would be a such challenging season?

  • Collin

    Please reply to my response Via e-mail with your Jacket size

  • TLW

    Set up a monthly recurring donation – LOVE that option and do it whenever it is available.
    Thanks for what you do!

  • Steve

    At Solitude. Light snowfall, but probably 3-4 inches. But very wet and thick. But at least snow

  • Donated today.My wife and I are going to visit Salt Lake every winter for a week long skiing/boarding vacation and we will plan our next trip based on your info.Thanks !

  • Will it ever snow again in Tahoe?

    Just donated as well. Thanks for the great work during a tough season. If you think Utah has it bad (and they do), come check out Tahoe.

    Some good news. The most recent MJO forecast is trending in the right direction:

    This gives some legs to the possibility of a decent storm during the first week of April–maybe around April 5-10?

  • Charlie

    Your work is very much appreciated Even, even by Eastcoasters like me who may or may not make it out to the Wasatch on any given season. Unfortunately, the size of my donation is far less than the value your website provides.

    Keep it up.

  • PC Indy

    I split my time between PC and the flat lands of Indiana. I read your forecast every morning with anticipation, as much for the snow potential as the comic relief. Thanks for staying positive and keeping things fun in a tough winter. My Utah friends ask for my travel calendar as it snows without fail the day after I leave. Right on cue, I left last night… If you like, I’ll be glad to share it with you next year. I think it’s more accurate than most models and definitely better than the Farmers Almanac. Keep up the good work! Donation complete… Cheers!

  • jim

    An update on conditions at snowbird today for anyone interested. Snowed heavily this morning on and off dropping a quick 4 inches or so then some clearing with sunny breaks around 2pm. Looks like there’s more snow to come thru wednesday though. Visibility was poor today as you would expect. Conditions are great for this time of year.

  • Luis

    I am a new and huge fan — love the humor and also the rare scientific terminology and depth. I am a SLC local and Prof at the U. Can I mail you you a check? If so, can you give me a PO Box or address? — Luis