Snow is falling in the mountains of Northern Utah today. Snow will taper off this evening but could increase again on Tuesday as a second wave move through the far north. Ridge builds in for late this week into the weekend, keeping us warm and dry. Next storm possible middle of next week.
Our storm is here, showers are just starting with a few snowflakes showing up (as of 5:45 am) on the Snowbasin snow stake cam. Here is a look at the radar starting to fill in at 5:45am:
By mid to late morning, a well-defined cold front should move through the area with intense precip rates and dropping snow levels (falling to 6,000 feet or lower). Orographic showers will then continue this afternoon in a northwest flow with daytime heating hopefully helping to destabilize the atmosphere. By midnight tonight, I think the Cottonwoods will have 4-8″ of snow. PC and other resorts should see significantly less as they will not be favored by orographics — probably just 2-4″. Last chair today should be good!
A second wave pushes in tomorrow (Tuesday) with additional accumulations possible, however this wave will mostly pass to our north so the best accumulations might be confined to the Idaho border. Still, a few more inches will be possible. That brings total accumulations by Wednesday morning to 6-12″ for the Cottonwoods. PC resorts should see 2-5″ with 3-8″ total for Snowbasin/PowMow.
Here is the graphical look at the Cottonwoods… First, from the 12km NAM:
In this model, the Upper Cottonwoods just sees 6″ through Wednesday morning. But here is the 4km NAM:
In this higher resolution version, it receives up to 16″ of snow. Now this is usually overdone, so I don’t think we’ll see that much. But perhaps 12″ is possible if we get super lucky…. Gotta be optimistic.
High pressure takes control again by Wednesday afternoon and we warm up and dry out as we head into the weekend.
As of right now, both the GFS and EC show the ridge retrograding out into the eastern Pacific early next week. That looks like it will allow a system to drop into the Great Basin middle of next week (around 4/1) . As of right now, the GFS is mostly weak with leftovers whereas the Euro shows a decent system. Too early to know which has a better handle. Time will tell….
P.S. Although a storm or two is in the forecast, it’s that time of year where we have to accept that the season is generally winding down. As you’re all well aware, this has been a rough season. In fact, as discussed last week, it could be the worst season ever in terms of total snowfall. If you think it was tough as a skier/rider, imagine how it’s been for me to have to wake up every morning just to share more bad news…. NOT FUN! However, I tried to stay positive and even add a bit of humor here and there. I’ll still be forecasting as long as there is snow to forecast, but if you’ve been happy with the service provided by WSF this winter. Please consider making a donation. WSF is a free service but donations help to make it worthwhile for me to put in the hours required every day to make forecasts and answer questions — even just a few bucks help.
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