Storm system moves in on Monday, lasting through Tuesday with mountain snow showers likely. Accumulations should be 6-12″ in the Upper Cottonwoods with 3-8″ elsewhere in the Wasatch.
The storm we’ve been talking about for the past several days is still on track for tomorrow (Monday). It has been tense waiting to see if the trough would dig far enough south to bring us decent snowfall.
Right now, I’d expect snowfall to pick up in the mountains of Northern Utah during the day on Monday. The heaviest snow will likely be sometime in the afternoon as a cold front moves through. Last chair Monday should be the best. Snowfall will be more scattered Monday night as we will be in the unstable, but moist post-frontal environment. Another wave could enhance precip again on Tuesday with additional accumulations. Tuesday should be a good powder day as well!
The GFS and EC are in decently good agreement. The only model that gives me cause for concern is the NAM which remains much drier. Still, I’m sticking with my guns from yesterday and will continue to forecast 6-12″ for the Upper Cottonwoods. I’m going to bet on the moist northwest flow and instability overcoming the marginal energy. Gotta be optimistic! I do NOT think PC resorts will do as well… 3-6″ is more likely on that side of the hill. Snowbasin and PowMow could do a bit better, perhaps 4-8″… Beaver Mountain way up north could do well. The above stated accumulations are through Wednesday morning when all is said and done.
Ridging will take control for the end of next week, for Wednesday and Thursday, temps should be cool enough at night for snowmaking which is good news for lower elevations that have seen significant melt off. At this point, we look to be mostly dry through the end of March.
The MJO which I’ve been talking about periodically is quickly moving towards a traditionally more favorable Phase 1. It is currently very strong. Here is the index map:
The solid red line marks the previous movement, the green line is the current forecast. The farther from the center, the stronger the MJO is. Yes, right now the GFS forecasts the MJO to weaken as it heads toward Phase 1, but it’s been forecasted to weaken for the past week, but instead, has remained strong and has been progressing toward more favorable phases.
So what does this mean? It’s my opinion that this may be our best hope of flipping the pattern in the next two weeks. So perhaps we open the storm door a bit as we head into April. Long range models are also hinting that a storm could make it into the region right around the turn of the month. We’ll see….