Getting our “Mojo” Back

Sunday, March 22, 2015 at 7:49 am


Storm system moves in on Monday, lasting through Tuesday with mountain snow showers likely.  Accumulations should be 6-12″ in the Upper Cottonwoods with 3-8″ elsewhere in the Wasatch.


The storm we’ve been talking about for the past several days is still on track for tomorrow (Monday).  It has been tense waiting to see if the trough would dig far enough south to bring us decent snowfall.

Right now, I’d expect snowfall to pick up in the mountains of Northern Utah during the day on Monday.  The heaviest snow will likely be sometime in the afternoon as a cold front moves through.  Last chair Monday should be the best.  Snowfall will be more scattered Monday night as we will be in the unstable, but moist post-frontal environment.  Another wave could enhance precip again on Tuesday with additional accumulations.  Tuesday should be a good powder day as well!

The GFS and EC are in decently good agreement.  The only model that gives me cause for concern is the NAM which remains much drier.  Still, I’m sticking with my guns from yesterday and will continue to forecast 6-12″ for the Upper Cottonwoods.  I’m going to bet on the moist northwest flow and instability overcoming the marginal energy.  Gotta be optimistic!   I do NOT think PC resorts will do as well… 3-6″ is more likely on that side of the hill.  Snowbasin and PowMow could do a bit better, perhaps 4-8″… Beaver Mountain way up north could do well.  The above stated accumulations are through Wednesday morning when all is said and done.

Ridging will take control for the end of next week, for Wednesday and Thursday, temps should be cool enough at night for snowmaking which is good news for lower elevations that have seen significant melt off.  At this point, we look to be mostly dry through the end of March.

The MJO which I’ve been talking about periodically is quickly moving towards a traditionally more favorable Phase 1.  It is currently very strong.  Here is the index map:



The solid red line marks the previous movement, the green line is the current forecast. The farther from the center, the stronger the MJO is.  Yes, right now the GFS forecasts the MJO to  weaken as it heads toward Phase 1, but it’s been forecasted to weaken for the past week, but  instead, has remained strong and has been progressing toward more favorable phases.

So what does this mean?  It’s my opinion that this may be our best hope of flipping the pattern in the next two weeks.  So perhaps we open the storm door a bit as we head into April.  Long range models are also hinting that a storm could make it into the region right around the turn of the month.  We’ll see….


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  • Chandler

    Wear are the snow levals going to be at?

  • Aaron

    Coming in on the 27th, I was planning on buying a new pair of ski boots when I get in town, does anyone know where the best places to go would be, best deal selection etc?

    • anant

      Inkline boot fitters, wasatch powder house and black diamond ask have great selections. Also check out level nine and rei

      • Fred

        Don’t know about the other places or BOOTS specifically.
        But have purchased quite a bit of gear from snow boards, skis, socks, helmets, etc. from LEVEL9 the last 18 months and have been pleased with their service and selection.

    • Michelle

      Level Nine for sure!

  • Steve

    NWS had 6-12 forecast this morning. They’ve backed down to 4-8 this afternoon. What happened?

    • Tram

      My guess is they have lost faith in the secondary shortwave for tues. THe intial punch looked the same to me.

    • Don’t know. But I’m sticking with the optimistic 6-12″ for the Upper Cottonwoods.

  • LCC

    For snowbird, should I take off Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday?

    • Monday or Tuesday… Monday will likely be a storm day with free refills, so that would be my choice. Should get better and better as the day goes on, so no rush to get up there early.

  • jim

    Hey Evan just got it to snowbird this afternoon staying till friday. NAM and Gfs have really come around on precip but NWS doesn’t seem to match models. Do you have any revisions on snowfall amounts or still 6-12?

    • I’m sticking with the optimistic 6-12″ for the Upper Cottonwoods thru Wednesday AM.

  • I’m staying at Canyons for 3 days of skiing starting Tuesday. I want to ski Canyons, Park City and take a trip to Alta. Any suggestions on which days to do which resorts?

    • I would do Alta on Tuesday when there’s likely to be good fresh snow. Then rip groopers and leftovers at the other two on Wed/Thurs.

  • Anthony

    Canyons and Pc are in bad shape , I would suggest bcc and lcc all 3 days .

  • tuan

    PC is in very bad shape so I would imagine Canyons would be too. They are already taking down many features in the park to push snow to cover areas on the mountain. I hope this storm delivers at least 6inches to PC. Hopefully it will be cold enough for them to blow some snow too or else Id think they would be closing sooner than their anticipated closing date of April 20th.

  • They’re not going to blow any snow anymore. It’s too expensive for those 2-3 weeks of ski season that’s left.

  • Thanks – rethinking my schedule. Maybe Alta today and something like Solitude tomorrow