Everything below is still valid… Only change is that models have trended slightly farther north with the trough next week which reduces our chances of seeing meaningful snowfall. Always a chance trends could change but our run of misfortune continues…WSF
Cooler temps today with a chance for a few showers in Southern Utah. Dry weather will continue through the weekend into the beginning of next week. Our next chance for snow is Tuesday and Wednesday (3/24 & 3/25).
Yesterday we had a cool front move through the area. It was very weak and didn’t manage to drop any precip, however we did cloud over and today temperatures will be cooler so the mountain slush-fest won’t be quite as hardcore today.
This weekend looks to be dry. The Euro (and to an extent the Canadian) had been persistent on bringing a trough into the area while the GFS has kept all energy to our north. As expected, the Euro is now in line with the GFS and it look dry for us. Perhaps just a few clouds and breezes this weekend, but no snow expected. Here is the total QPF through Monday of next week:
The tiny bit you see in Southern Utah is from today’s weak front that is now down there, but otherwise we remain high and dry with just some light precip up in Montana and northern Idaho.
Our one hope is a trough for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now, the Euro is farther north and weaker with this system, only bringing the Wasatch a light dusting of snow. The GFS is stronger and deeper with the trough and would bring the area halfway decent accumulations. It is far from set in stone, but we have no choice but to pin our hopes on this trough for next week. I’ll be watching this like a hawk over the coming days and let you know how it plays out.
Yesterday I mentioned the models were showing some more active weather moving in by the end of the month. Of course, as I feared yesterday, they’ve already seemed to back off on this idea. I know…. SHOCKING! My reaction checking models each morning….
The good news, if you’re looking hard enough, is that the MJO continues to march east into Phase 8 and hopefully it can continue into Phases 1,2,3 in the coming weeks. As mentioned yesterday, that could help flip the pattern. In the Spring, the +PDO (anonymously warm sea surface temperatures off west coast) which has likely been fueling the ridge this winter becomes less of a factor as the season changes. These factors combined could give us a good April. According to the CFS model, the next two weeks look relatively quiet for the western CONUS (continental US) with more drier-than-normal conditions:
That carries us through the end of March, then the first week of April (week 3) we see the pattern flip with potential for the jet to undercut the ridge. CFS currently calls for above-average precip for most of the West:
It’s kinda sad to be pinning all our hopes on one weak trough next week and then a 3 week forecast that extends into April. But it’s all we’ve got this winter…. Personally, I’ve busted out the mountain bike and plan to ride that for now. But the skis are at the ready for when storms return!