March Blandness

Tuesday, March 17, 2015 at 8:32 am


A few showers possible Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday with cooler temps.  A weak system possible this weekend and again early next week.  Significant snow looks unlikely in the next 10 days.


Not much new to talk about, the forecast remains unfavorable for good snowfall.  A few showers possible this afternoon and tomorrow across the state as a weak disturbance moves through.  The main benefit from this will be cooler temps that will drop us from the near-record values we’ve seen recently.

Back to warm and dry Thursday thru Saturday before another weak system pushes into the area.  GFS keeps virtually all precip north of us while the EC brings us light amounts late Saturday into Sunday.

Early next week another system will push into the northwest. This could bring us a chance for more showers Tuesday and Wednesday, however latest model runs have trended this farther north as well.

Like I mentioned yesterday, we are fighting with the ridge and in this pattern it should be no surprise that things aren’t going our way in the models, especially with the trends we’ve seen all season.


Is there any good news out there? Perhaps, yes.  The MJO continues to be strong and is moving into Phase 8 as we speak, that is the first phase that is somewhat favorable.  If it continues on into Phases 1-2-3, it could provide the spark to flip the pattern and open the storm door.  There are some indications starting to show up in long-range ensembles that the ridge breaks down and a stronger jet nudges into the west coast right at the end of the month.  Of course, this is almost two weeks out so there’s no guarantee — but if you’re searching for good news, this is all we’ve got right now.


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  • TJ
  • jim

    I would also mention that the Canadian model continues to show precip on the 22nd (a bit stronger than EC). Maybe this will surprise? What do temps look like next week? I’m coming in on Sunday to the Bird for a week.

    • There’s always a chance, but at this point I’m setting expectations low. Very low.

  • Tim

    I’ve resorted to taking laps up emmigration on my bike. Maybe this is equivalent to washing cars?

  • scotchipman

    I have started to water ski. March is usually my favorite month of the year because I can normally ski Powder several times then between storms hit the lake, will be going to the lake more this year.

  • az

    Where do you water ski in Utah right now? Water temp cold? Im doing it too but in AZ and without a wetsuit.

  • Alan Weigold

    I put my boat on KSL this week and got the bikes out and rode, I will clean the boat this weekend, hopefully that will open the door for a miracle storm

  • Paul March

    Coming to Deer Valley March 23-27. Staying within walking distance to the slopes and have a beginner skier with me. Stay at Deer Valley all three days or is it going to be worth a drive to Snowbird or Alta?

    • Ben

      It’s definitely worth a trip over to Alta, the Albion/Sunnyside area is great for beginner skiers and will have better quality snow that what you’re likely to find on the Park City side of things due to better exposure, more snowfall throughout this meager season, and higher elevation. Snowbird may be the worst beginner mountain in the Rockies, so I personally wouldn’t bother in your position.

    • Evren Karpak

      I’d say, stay put instead. Deer Valley has a bunch of — good — manmade and after all we went through this winter, it don’t matter what the Alta averages are. Unless it’s fresh made, it all skis the same. But LCC would be good for more of a mountain feel in the surroundings.

  • jim

    12z gfs has little more intense and longer duration precip for 25th than previous runs.12z GEM still showing precip for 22nd and is back to idea of storm 25th. Just need a few more runs like this before I believe it.. Keep up the snow dancing.

    • Will it ever snow again in Tahoe?

      I’ll keep dancing. But I don’t see anything in the models (including the most recent GFS run) that suggests Utah (or Tahoe) will see meaningful snow before April.

      • jim

        There’s a low coming in to the PNW on the 24th that brings a trough down to northern Utah, not a big storm but would be more than just a dusting if it validates. It’s fighting the ridge of high pressure centered off the Cali coast. 12z run shows it making to the Wasatch. I’ll be there next week so I’ll take even 2 inches of powder at this point!

        • Right, if the 12z GFS were to verify, it would bring some fresh snow to the high Wasatch. The ensemble mean from the 06z GEFS run was actually farther south than the operational run, so it seems to be trending toward the mean. That is good news. The 12z Euro that is just in still shows precip with this weekend’s storm, but keeps the precip mainly north on the 24th and 25th.

          • jim

            Battle of the models at this point. What is the QPF with Euro for Sunday?

          • .25 – .5″ Not great, but better than nothing.

  • jim

    sold…but we gotta work on the euro for 25th!

  • jim

    I see what you mean about the 12z euro. I think that trough will come further south on next runs.. It was there on earlier runs. I’ve noticed that the euro often comes back to a previous solution. The GFS and Canadian have it so there’s a good chance it will.

  • heyatoya

    Does anyone know what the back country is looking like? Mt. Raymond, Wolverine? Is it worth a hike next week. Coming out 22nd. Is the high north holding out?

    • Faceplant

      Even the high north got warm this weekend. I was up high in the backcountry and it was pretty creamy. Not bad but not cold winter snow either.

    • Joni

      you’ll have to walk on a lotta dirt down low for quite awhile before you hit the snow.

  • jim

    ummm…anybody see the 18z gfs for next week. what a difference from earlier. is this the mjo kicking in?

    • Until the Euro is on board, I’m even going to remotely get my hopes up. But yes, I did see it. Amazing how different each of the two major models is with both of the incoming troughs this week. Model discrepancy makes my job fun!

  • jim

    Evan is this typical of most winters in the west or is this winter worst than most for model guidance? I follow east coast weather mostly. it’s odd that the 18z gfs still doesn’t show anything for sunday. i would gladly give up the euro solution for sunday for the gfs solution for next week. it’s less than 10 days out, how can the models be so different. I find the euro has underperformed lately, or maybe new gfs is just doing a better job than before.

    • This much spread is unusual, but I think it’s more of a product of the pattern we are in than anything. Models always struggle when they are trying to figure out exactly how a ridge will break down. This year, we’re constantly trying to break down a ridge and therefore it gives the illusion models are struggling more. Just my 2 cents….

  • kevin

    Heading to park city 3/19-3/21 should I ski there or head over to Alta or deer valley. I never skiied in warm temps like upper 50. What’s the best way to dress?