Warm weather continues. A slight cool down with a chance for scattered showers late Tuesday thru Thursday. Another chance for showers possible late in the weekend and perhaps a bit stronger storm for next week.
We remain well south of the storm track, however some subtle energy will work its way into Utah starting on Tuesday and lasting through Thursday. This is extremely unorganized but daytime heating could help fire up scattered showers, mostly in higher terrain middle of this week. Unfortunately, snow levels will remain 8000 feet or higher so it won’t do much for skiers. Nothing to get excited about…
Next system pushes into the Pacific coast on Saturday and reaches our area by Sunday. The problem is that this trough will also fall victim to high pressure and lose most, if not all, of its punch before reaching us. The GFS model has any appreciable energy being pushed north or us, whereas the EC holds it together well enough to bring us at least a small storm. However in either scenario, snow levels would be relatively high with light precip. Again, probably nothing to get excited about….
A third system is possible for next week (Tuesday 3/24). In this case, it’s the GFS that has a decently strong storm and the EC that pushes all precip north of the area. We’ll just have to wait and see which model has a better handle on things, but with our luck this year, I’d put my money on the Euro.
It’s not a great-looking forecast for skiers and snowboarders, that’s for sure. Our problem right now is simple — the overall pattern continues to favor high pressure ridging. So any and all storms that try to make it into the area get beat up and/or deflected as they do so. I know some over you over the past week have occasionally posted maps from the CPC that show above average precipitation forecasted over Utah. I was less-than-enthused and this is why, those CPC maps don’t generally take into consideration what makes sense based on pattern. They can easily be tricked by one or two overly ambitious ensembles. They also tend to lag behind the latest model trends. Personally, I just don’t think they are of much use, especially if you’re looking at the ensembles directly.
If there’s one thing you can say about my forecast discussions, it’s that they are honest. When the forecast is bleak, you know it. When it is promising (you may not remember a promising forecast), you know it. Right now, there aren’t too many positives. Sure, next week could end up bringing a better storm into the area, but at this point it’s more than a week away and I wouldn’t get your hopes up just yet.
We will have at least a couple more powder days before all is said and done — so I wouldn’t give up just yet. If corn snow and spring conditions don’t interest you, then go ride your bike for awhile and when a solid-looking storm is in the forecast I’ll let you know.