Warm and breezy today as a southerly flow increases ahead of a PNW trough. Utah should stay dry, however, thru Tuesday. A few showers possible Wednesday thru Friday of this week. Stronger system possible for next weekend.
A system is currently moving into the Pacific Northwest. This is promoting a strong southerly flow today in Utah that will carry plenty of mild air over the area, but it will also kick up winds as well. Eventually this system weakens and gets deflected well north of the area on Monday and Tuesday, leaving Utah dry.
By Wednesday, a subtle trough will closed off and move across the Great Basin with a touch moisture infusion from the south. This will give us a chance for scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. This “system” has very little organization and virtually no cold air, so snow levels will be high and accumulations will be minimal to non-existent.
Next weekend, another system will move into the region. Models have decent agreement on the general idea of a late Saturday-Sunday trough over the area but disagree on the details. Right now it looks to be a small to moderate system with snow levels once again an issue.
A third system could be in the cards for about Tuesday (3/24), there is some indication that this could be cooler and perhaps a bit stronger. At this point, confidence is extremely low. Wish I had better news to report but long-range forecasting tools like the CFS model have been trending drier for the end of March and beginning of April. Of course, the CFS has been horribly inaccurate this season (and most seasons), so I wouldn’t panic just yet. The MJO is strengthening and progressing into phase 7. We need to watch this, if it can somehow manage to propagate into Phases 8-1-2-3, it could influence our Wx patterns, but we are running out of time to make any meaningful difference in our snowpack.