Breezy Sunday

Sunday, March 15, 2015 at 7:58 am


Warm and breezy today as a southerly flow increases ahead of a PNW trough.  Utah should stay dry, however, thru Tuesday.  A few showers possible Wednesday thru Friday of this week.  Stronger system possible for next weekend.


A system is currently moving into the Pacific Northwest.  This is promoting a strong southerly flow today in Utah that will carry plenty of mild air over the area, but it will also kick up winds as well.  Eventually this system weakens and gets deflected well north of the area on Monday and Tuesday, leaving Utah dry.

By Wednesday, a subtle trough will closed off and move across the Great Basin with a touch moisture infusion from the south.  This will give us a chance for scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday.  This “system” has very little organization and virtually no cold air, so snow levels will be high and accumulations will be minimal to non-existent.

Next weekend, another system will move into the region.  Models have decent agreement on the general idea of a late Saturday-Sunday trough over the area but disagree on the details.  Right now it looks to be a small to moderate system with snow levels once again an issue.


A third system could be in the cards for about Tuesday (3/24), there is some indication that this could be cooler and perhaps a bit stronger.  At this point, confidence is extremely low.  Wish I had better news to report but long-range forecasting tools like the CFS model have been trending drier for the end of March and beginning of April.  Of course, the CFS has been horribly inaccurate this season (and most seasons), so I wouldn’t panic just yet.  The MJO is strengthening and progressing into phase 7.  We need to watch this, if it can somehow manage to propagate into Phases 8-1-2-3, it could influence our Wx patterns, but we are running out of time to make any meaningful difference in our snowpack.


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  • I have a feeling it is going to be a early and LONG summer!

    • probably a wet summer again whether long or not. Hopefully, signs at this point do not indicate another carbon copy of this winter that we have been in. Have read some reports that an El Nino is developing and for this reason the Hurricanes may not be so bad this year but some local meteorologists are saying that there is really no sign of an El Nino at this point and they wonder where these meteorologists or climatologists are getting this information that one is developing.

  • heyatoya

    Give me 24″-48″ next week. Please! Or else give me sunny mid 40’s. I cannot handle a week of dust on crust. WSF do something!

    • Mat s.

      It’s over and it’s been over since January . The abc cbs xyz and gfs are all BS. 🙂 bring on and long bike season with the occasional t storm to keep the trails nice

  • Jim Gilland

    WSF does an amazing job with forecasting but is not responsible for creating weather. I appreciate the honesty and accuracy of the forecasting, even though there must be a huge temptation to make it more rosy than it is. Thank you for writing it in such a way that even with a sad forecast, it’s written in a cheerful way!

    • jim

      I agree. Not an easy winter to forecast but Evan does his best to keep it fun and informative. Point in case, the 12z runs all tanked on storms for next week. That’s the way it has gone all winter. This winter has been an exercise in futility.

  • TJ

    Last year I showed up in SLC with a faint storm in the forecast, but it was a fairly empty-looking period of March, and no promises were being made. Well, the storm sped up and absolutely dumped a couple days after I arrived. Just so you all know, I’m arriving on the 25th. You’re welcome.

    • jim

      Coming in on the 22nd myself. Hope your luck continues and you are right in pointing out that most of the big dumps this winter only showed up days before on the models.

  • Steve

    Latest GFS run. Basically nothing until end of march. Know it’s only one run, but trends are not good. Jeez.

  • Well the sad part of any long range forecast, even into next week, is that it is going to be so warm that any storm is futile. Let the summer begin, ready for a pull on my fishing line and fun times up in our awesome mountains. Great job on your forecasting for the year, just hate the fact that you were right all the time and the snow was not there! See you next year. Here’s to wishful thinking for next year!