In the mid-day hour, I cried “Warm Warm Warm”

Friday, March 13, 2015 at 7:03 am

Our weak system yesterday did exactly as expected, bringing 1-2″ of wet, creamy snow to the highest elevations.  We are now in for a warm weekend as high pressure to our south nudges over the region.  A trough moving into the northwest this weekend will promote a southerly flow that will enhance the warming.  Mid-70s likely in the valley by Sunday with 50s up on the mountain!  VERY WARM!

Next week a closed low will combine with some moisture infusion from the south.  As always with these closed lows, the exact location of the best precip is difficult to know at this point, but it looks like Utah could see scattered showers next Wednesday and Thursday.  Accumulations do not look significant.

After that the models generally agree that another system will try to push into the region around 3/22, but it at this time it looks like that system will also weaken considerably as it encounters the ridge.  In general, long-range ensembles hint at a more active pattern developing by the last week of March, but for me, it’s hard to put any faith in that right now.

It certainly feels like we keep getting up only to get knocked down again….



When there is solid good news to report, you’ll be the first to know!


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23 thoughts on “In the mid-day hour, I cried “Warm Warm Warm”

  1. jim

    I have been closely following the various weather models (GFS,ECMWF, GEM etc) for many years during the winter months and I can’t recall as frustrating a winter as this one. Would you also say, from your experience, that the models have had a hard time this winter.

  2. brig

    Alta 350″ this year. Hope I am wrong on the low end. N PAC has a few small storms but looks to be transitioning to the spring summer pattern.

    Late March big April hopes.

  3. Jeff

    What determines the rate of snow melt? Rain, solar radiation, air temp and wind maybe the top 4? Would love to know what we should be hoping to avoid to prolong our season.

    1. jim

      I’ve noticed that too all winter….things look promising 10 days out but never materializes. Frustrating indeed. I think we will all be happy when this winter is over…There’s always next winter.

  4. Smoke Gets in Your Eyes

    Temperature in the 80’s here in Vegas, smoky bar filled casinos, cough, cough, wheeze, wheeze, sniff, sniff. But it’s March Madness so I’ll have to gut it out. Beats waiting for a March Miracle.

  5. Sandy

    Soooo…what exercises does everyone do in the off season? Wanna start getting ready for next season! Not THAT far away! LOL

  6. JD

    Heading back East for some spring slush/mud skiing the last week of March. 99% sure it will be 35 and raining in Maine and dump 3-5 feet in Utah while I’m gone. You can thank me later.

    1. JD

      You could, but then I’d feel obligated to apologize if my “forecast” is wrong. I hope I’m right and you’re all posting waist deep shots everywhere. At least the beer I’ll be drinking is guaranteed to satisfy….

  7. C.C.

    Looking more and more like this will be a record snow year after all, unfortunately it will not be the type of record we were hoping for. I just hope the upcoming meltdown doesn’t force the resorts to close early due to loss of snow base.

  8. daveh

    i’m just checking in for the video loops regarding the chances for big snowfall! too hilarious!!

  9. Steve

    JP, headed there tonight. I agree. It’s awesome. But is there any single track that’s rideable now without messing up the trails?

  10. delucasaurus

    No trails ready in PC now; snow-covered ones are too slick for fat bikes, and the uncovered ones are too muddy (unless you don’t care about trail preservation). That said, if you’re coming out for a weekend, you can rent a car super cheap and head to Moab, Fruita, or St. George and ride amazing trails in perfect +70 temps.

  11. Roland

    Flying in tonight to ride the bird through Thursday. Not the conditions we had hoped for, but any day on the mountain is a good day. The bird has twice as much base than my home mountain so I’m not complaining.

  12. Jim Sou Cal

    Last day of a 5 day bird run now. Choose wisely for best time and fun. Mineral basin for first softening and then all depends. Regulator Johnson has had several observer impressive slides for life. To miming is everything. Enjoy.

  13. Spank Tickleman

    I think that after 7-8 days the models just revert back to what the norm should be for this time of year….

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