Cream on Crust

Tuesday, March 10, 2015 at 7:06 am


Ridge temporarily breaks down Wednesday allowing a weak system to move through the area on Thursday.  A couple inches of creamy snow on the upper mountain is probably all we are likely to see.  Ridge will re-establish itself by the weekend and deflect storms away from the area.


Not much new today.  A weakening system will manage to push through the ridge tomorrow night into Thursday.  Precip amounts look meager:


The one thing this system may have going for it is that the sun could enhance showers a bit during the day Thursday.  Diurnal heating is a factor in spring months.  However, snow levels will be high on Thursday (6,500-7,000 feet) so the snow that does fall at resorts will be of the dense variety.  Not necessarily a bad thing as creamy snow in small amounts is better than fluff as it better covers crust.  Right now I don’t think most locations will see more than an inch or two.  But who knows, if we get lucky, maybe a few places can reach the mighty 3″ mark.

Long range:

This weekend the ridge returns and it will keep us warm and dry.  A system will be pushing into the PNW but will struggle to bring energy far enough east or south to do us much good.  Eventually, a closed low forms and is progged by most models to bring precip to the four corners region late next week.  I don’t have much faith in this doing anything for us.  Long range models look pathetic right now, to be honest.  Occasionally they’ve shown a bit of undercutting of the ridge toward the last ten days of March, but they’ve shown that many times this year and it never seems to happen.  At this point, I’d say it would take a miracle at the tail end of the month for us to just see average precip for the month of March.  Folks, we just can’t win this season!  As I’ve said all year, it could be worse.  One look at the ski season Tahoe or the PNW has been having and you’re eternally grateful for what we have.

Hopefully something interesting starts showing up soon in the models….



Live webcam from Snoqualmie Pass in Washington where winter has yet to show up: mordor

This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • ChocoANos

    At least there’s something in play here.

    Fingers crossed for an overachiever. Thank you for your wonderful service.

    • Yep, I’m setting my expectations low, but hoping for a surprise. There’s always a chance!

      • jill kohl

        I Had my snow tires removed yesterday…we should get some blizzards now!!!

  • Faceplant

    What model does the CPC use? They have above average precip for the 15th to the 23rd. At least it’s something. Also, any correlation between hot winters and hot summers? are we in for a doozie this summer?

    • CPC uses a blend of ensembles from various models. Personally I find the CPC maps to be deceiving and not much use as one rogue run of one model seems to skew the numbers. Also, they are not updated daily so they have a tendency to be behind the latest model trends. Just my 2 cents.

      • Faceplant

        I’m a cup is half full kinda guy. The CPC has been very accurate when forecasting the ridge. And pretty crappy when forecasting precip. So it’s at least 50% right? 🙂

  • jim

    The last two runs of the GFS are horrible. At least there’s the Canadian model to give us some (false) hope, it shows two snow events in the next 10 days, with a stronger system around the 18th/19th. The Euro longe range also shows a decent storm around the 19th (that closed low you mentioned) but you are right….every time the models giveth, they taketh away.

    • I once wrote an analogy of the models as if they were in a classroom together and I referred to the Canadian model as the ADHD kid who occasionally shouts out a good idea but is normally just ignored.

      • jim

        Or has tourettes (no offence to anyone)

  • TJ

    Do you have any recommendations for books or websites for learning about weather forecasting? I have developed such a strong interest in meteorology reading your blog (in addition to the fascination that has developed after living through this record-breaking weather we have seen here in the Northeast), but I have found it difficult to find resources that break it down for true newbies. Thanks!

  • Hector

    WSF is the best resource. There is nothing else.

  • David Miele

    I would like to place an order for a nice big LCC dump March 18th in the evening and please have it continue for 5 days. Many thanks and great work here!

  • aaron

    I’m coming March 27, if it doesn’t snow between now and then will LCC resorts even be open? Or worth skiing if they are?

  • Aaron

    Thanks ,we will just have to make the best of it:)

    • It’s a long way off, for all we know, we could get hammered then. There will still be plenty of snow in LCC, so don’t worry about that.

      • Faceplant

        If it doesn’t snow, I’ll be getting hammered way more often.

  • Jim Sou Cal

    Thanks for the updates! Will post ride reports from Snowbird today. Suggestions welcome. 🙂

  • Steve

    The web cam was gold. The season is the worst. Can’t get a break.

  • Best GIF yet. Thanks for all your hard work!

  • Sandy

    Just wanted to thank you for your work. I rode Snowbird, Solitude (same day as you), and Park City last week, and it was amazing.

  • Greg

    Just returned from Utah. Skied on Wednesday, March 4th through the 9th. Hit In order-Snowbird, Solitude, Powder mt, Snowbasin, Snowbird and Brighton. Mineral basin opened on Wednesday, so that’s where we went. Awesome powder, but tracked up in minutes. Powder starved people! However, as thus was my 13 year olds first trip out west, I thought Mineral Basin was the best choice. Then Rd. To Provo opened. That was the best run of the trip. Next day at Solutude we found some great powder and no lines. The next 2 days at PM and Snowbasin were totally spring skiing, but fun to check out, way to warm. Getting back to snowbird with way more snow and cooler temps was the place to be, or any of the 4 in the Cottinwoods. If your heading out, there is plenty of snow. No more powder. Hope it snows some for your trip. Enjoy the sun!!!

  • Mark

    Bring your bathing suits this weekend because it’s going to be HOT out there! Could this be the end of the season for south and west facing slopes? From today’s Utah Avalanche Center’s update:

    “High pressure returns with a vengeance for the weekend as temps are forecasted to reach into the upper 40s at 10,000′ on Sunday. Valley temps to reach 70* by then.”

    And if you think this winter has been bad you’re right. In fact, it could end up being the least snowy winter of all time at Alta:

  • Steve

    I’m sure it’s an anomaly, but the 12Z gfs sure looks different for next week.

    • It’s back to its stronger solution for the closed low and subtle boundary. It’s an interesting scenario for sure and bears watching…

  • Ball Don’t Lie

    Thanks for all the hard work and snow info all season ET. I’ve got around 35 days in at this point and I’m probably ready to hang em up. The Miracle March doesn’t seem to be happening and with temperatures in the 70’s here in Salt Lake this weekend I’m ready to move on. Thanks again and we’ll see you next year!

  • jim

    Today’s updated CPC still has above average precipitation for 6-14 day period. Anyone interested in how they compute the probabilities can view the prognosis discussion. it’s quite interesting, even if it’s not highly reliable.