Small system this week

Monday, March 9, 2015 at 7:05 am


Warm and dry through Wednesday morning.  A weak system will move through late Wednesday into Thursday with modest snowfall amounts.


Dirty ridge overhead is keeping us fairly warm and dry.  Weak waves have passed by at times allowing a few clouds into the area.  A stronger wave (relative to previous ones) is set to move into the Pacific Northwest starting on Tuesday and will reach Utah by late Wednesday.  This wave is going to weaken considerably as it tracks east into high pressure.  It should bring us scattered showers Wednesday night into Thursday.  It is a mild system so snow levels will be on the high side.  Right now probably 6-7k feet.   A few inches of high-density snow on the upper mountain is probably the best we can expect.

We should dry out again for Friday-Sunday.  Models try to bring another system into the area by about Monday of next week but it too struggles to make it through high pressure.  We could see a mild southwesterly flow on Sunday ahead of the system.  Still unclear how much moisture makes it to Utah.

Overall, the long-term trend is to amplify the ridge up into the Yukon and allow the jet to undercut a bit.  This could bring more moisture into the west coast and Great Basin for the second half of March.  This pattern in the past has been able to bring copious moisture but is not conducive for cold storms.  So we may be looking at higher snow levels.  Of course, this long-range talk is speculative and should be treated as such.    I will say this much, however…. Long-range models are pretty consistent right now in trying to pick up the tempo.  The MJO is forecasted to get ridiculously strong — outlier mode.  Any time something goes into outlier mode, we are liable to see some interesting things occur.

We’ll have to wait and see what shows up in the operational model runs over the next week or so….


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  • jim

    Have to wait another hour now to get models now cause of daylight savings… The 0Z Euro EPS looks interesting around the 20th. Let’s hope your suspicions are right for second half of March.

  • Darren

    What time frame is the MJO referring to in “ludicrous speed”?

  • Andre

    Any idea how conditions will be this weekend in LCC / BCC? will it be a slushfest?

    • Scott

      Everything is holding up well in Alta. North facing is still fine, hard in the morning, soft in the afternoon. Sun needs to get higher to slush up most aspects aside from south.

  • jim

    The 12z NAM and Canadian (even UK met) favor more precip wed/thurs than the GFS. Have to wait 2 more hours to see latest Euro.

    • jim

      12z euro not terribly exciting. A few inches on the 12th and another few inches again on the 18th. Maybe Evan can shed some light on what the ensembles are looking like 10 days out?

  • Steve

    Evan, would be curious as to yout take on the daily CPC’s 6-14 day probability chart fro temp and precip. It show above normal precip for that time period with a bulls eye over intermountain west for 6-10 days. Given all of the other stuff I’m hearing, seems odd. Would be happy if true of course.

    • jim

      The 8-14 day is also above average. What do they base this on? You would think the GFS but the operational runs don’t support that. Maybe the ensembles?

      • jim

        Answered my own question. This is taken from CPC page..”ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR
        So the answer is the ensembles.

    • Those maps are probably reflecting a feature that has been in the models for a few days. Basically a stalled boundary next week strengthens and slowly drops from Idaho thru Utah toward the four corners. It could bring us good precip, but at this point its one of those things that could vanish at any time. Personally, I’m waiting for it to get within 7 days before I even mention it in a discussion. Overall, the pattern is not conducive to consistent storms.

  • Wilson

    Is there any chance at all we get more than 1-2″ with this puny midweek system?

  • takechances

    Love reading your forecasts. I am visiting my friend who lives in SLC from the 11-15. I know its been a bad season for you guys but im excited nonetheless. Coming from easter PA your bad winter is our good winter. Cheers and hope the season rebounds for you guys/gals.


  • Sarah

    I enjoy your blog so much. Even when there is nothing to write home about snow wise, I still find it incredibly interesting to know why the weather is playing out the way it is. Thank you for all you do. You have a lot of fans out here.

  • Jim Sou Cal

    Whatever happens I should going up a lift at Snowbird by 11am Tuesday. I hope it’s more than dust on crust when the front passes. All fun.