Warm and dry through Wednesday morning. A weak system will move through late Wednesday into Thursday with modest snowfall amounts.
Dirty ridge overhead is keeping us fairly warm and dry. Weak waves have passed by at times allowing a few clouds into the area. A stronger wave (relative to previous ones) is set to move into the Pacific Northwest starting on Tuesday and will reach Utah by late Wednesday. This wave is going to weaken considerably as it tracks east into high pressure. It should bring us scattered showers Wednesday night into Thursday. It is a mild system so snow levels will be on the high side. Right now probably 6-7k feet. A few inches of high-density snow on the upper mountain is probably the best we can expect.
We should dry out again for Friday-Sunday. Models try to bring another system into the area by about Monday of next week but it too struggles to make it through high pressure. We could see a mild southwesterly flow on Sunday ahead of the system. Still unclear how much moisture makes it to Utah.
Overall, the long-term trend is to amplify the ridge up into the Yukon and allow the jet to undercut a bit. This could bring more moisture into the west coast and Great Basin for the second half of March. This pattern in the past has been able to bring copious moisture but is not conducive for cold storms. So we may be looking at higher snow levels. Of course, this long-range talk is speculative and should be treated as such. I will say this much, however…. Long-range models are pretty consistent right now in trying to pick up the tempo. The MJO is forecasted to get ridiculously strong — outlier mode. Any time something goes into outlier mode, we are liable to see some interesting things occur.
We’ll have to wait and see what shows up in the operational model runs over the next week or so….