The models seems to be finding a bit more agreement and it’s no surprise that they are compromising on a middle ground. Euro is not quite as robust with precip today and the GFS offers us a bit more. Looks like late Wednesday into early Thursday we should see some mountain snowfall. It will likely be a smaller system with modest amounts, but at least it’s something.
After that, it looks like the ridge will continue to be the most dominant feature in our weather pattern. According to the CFS model, the next 10 days (March 8-18) offer little precip except for the aforementioned system:
However, the following 10 days (March 18-28) look noticeably better:
How much faith do I put in this? Not much. But it’s Spring now (meteorologically speaking), and that means that the atmosphere is undergoing changes, hopefully for the better. The MJO has been a non-factor this year in a mostly weak state, when it has strengthened, it has done so into unfavorable phases. Currently it is forecasted to get very strong for the first time in several years. Unfortunately, it is strengthening again into less-than-favorable phases, but there is some hope that it could propagate into better phases by the end of March into April. #GraspingAtStraws
Anyway, all we can do is hope a more active pattern returns again for the end of the month. Until then, we can hope our storm this week produces.
Warm and dry weather will continue for the remainder of this weekend and thru the middle of the upcoming week. Right now all models have a storm system moving into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS has been consistent showing this storm weakening considerably as it moves into the Great Basin — probably only bringing a few showers. However, the ECMWF (Euro), holds the system together much better and would actually bring the mountains of Utah somewhat decent accumulations. The Canadian Model (GEM) is somewhere in between. It will be interesting to see which way models trend over the coming days… Let’s hope the EC has a better handle on things… Stay tuned..
P.S. In case you know missed it on our Facebook page, here is a video of me getting fresh powder all day on Tuesday at Solitude. There’s no 50-foot cliff drops or fancy pole mounts. Just a good old fashioned POV ski edit. Enjoy!