Mountain snow showers this weekend in Utah with much colder air in place. A bit of a break early next week. Full-scale pattern change is on by the end of next week. Good news!
One last day of warmth and quiet weather in Utah. Tomorrow a system will enter the region from the north bringing cooler air and a chance for snow to much of the area. This system has an over-land trajectory coming down from Yukon in Canada so moisture is severely lacking for us. However, we should see a period of snowfall late on Friday then scattered snow showers through the weekend in the mountains of Northern Utah. It’s nothing significant, but it sure is nice to see this image again in the forecast:
As for accumulations, I wouldn’t set your expectation high for this weekend. 3-6″ is about the max I would expect, and even that is spread out over 48 hours or more, so it’s not going to feel too deep at any given time. However, these types of storms often can develop more persistent banding of showers over localized areas that can lead to higher totals. So while I wouldn’t expect much, I’d check radar and webcams regularly this weekend in case an area gets surprised. That’s my plan anyway…
The ridge will briefly push back over the area early next week before it starts to collapse and retrograde west into the central Pacific. This will bring the end-of-month pattern change we’ve been talking about for so long. Right now models generally bring precip back into the area around Thursday or Friday of next week, however details are very vague right now as we are still over a week out and models are dealing with major changes in the synoptic patterns at the same time — so confidence is low in the details but high in the fact that the pattern is changing.
All models continue to have a deep trough over the western CONUS (continental U.S.) during the last couple days of February and into early March. Every day I have to put in disclaimers that a pattern change does not guarantee large storms immediately. However, it does open the door for such storms. I use the following analogy…. We want the Wasatch to go into full #BeastMode, right? In order to get into beast mode, we need to power up with a pack of Skittles a la Marshawn Lynch. For the past 7 weeks, the vending machine has been empty. No matter what buttons got pushed, there was no way for us to get our Skittles and go full beast mode. However, a pattern change like this is like the vending machine getting re-stocked, now we have a whole assortment of options — we just hope that when we push the button, Skittles come out.
I’m hopeful we’ll get more significant snowfall with this pattern change. But until the storms get within a week and are in all models, I would refrain from getting too excited.
We are all hoping for a Miracle March, the prerequisite is a pattern change and we are getting that, now we juts hope that we can get the ingredients right from then on. Keep the faith!
P.S. If you’re international and/or don’t follow the NFL and the Marshawn Lynch Skittles analogy doesn’t make sense to you. Don’t worry, it doesn’t really make sense to me either…