Dry and warm through Thursday. Late Friday through the weekend, a colder storm system will bring snow to the mountains of Utah. Amounts look to remain light, but it should be enough to freshen things up.
The ridge along the west coast is going strong right now and will keep us warm and dry through Thursday.
Friday-Sunday: Late in the day on Friday we should see snow showers start to increase from north to south in the Wasatch. The area will see a few weak waves of moisture in a moist northwest flow through the weekend. I’d expect periods of snow in the mountains. This event does not look to be too heavy. There is still a decent amount of model disagreement, but my best guess would be that amounts in most locations will be 3-6″, notable exceptions could be the Cottonwoods which may benefit from the post-frontal northwest flow more than other areas. Details will be worked out more in the next two days….
Monday-Thursday (2/23 – 2/26): We should dry out again as the weekend system exits the area. While this period should see warmer and drier weather, the ridge should begin to break down during this time frame which will allow what we hope will be stronger systems into the area at the end of February into the first week of March.
Friday (2/27 and beyond): This is the time when all models currently have a stronger system moving into the Pacific northwest and eventually dropping into the Great Basin and Utah. Of course this is still 9 or 10 days out, so details are vague. What is important now is that we are moving out of the long-range ensembles I’ve been using to predict this pattern change for the past week and into the actual 10-day deterministic models. This means confidence is continuing to grow in the pattern change — we’ve taken that next important step toward this pattern change becoming a reality.
Overall, we’ve got a small shift in the pattern that will allow us to see some snowfall and colder air this weekend. It likely won’t be deep powder skiing, but it will definitely be a nice refresher. We are moving closer to the long-prophesized pattern change at the end of the month that could potentially return us to frequent, stronger storms in Utah as we head into early March. Too early to get excited, but things are slowly coming into focus.