Warm conditions this weekend. Cooler with a chance for a few light snow showers in northern Utah on Monday. Another chance for light snow late next week.
The last 24 hours have been BAD if you were hoping for snow in Utah in the next 10 days. All models trended toward keeping the ridge less amplified and closer to the coast. Which pushes the systems farther east and doesn’t let the in the “backdoor”. Monday we should still see a cool down and a chance for a few light snow showers in the northern mountains. But the chances of anything appreciable accumulating look slim. In yesterday’s discussion, I did mention that this could happen if the ridge set up farther east than forecasted, and sure enough, here we are. Still sucks….
Ridge dries us back out with warmer temps for Tuesday thru Thursday. Then we’ll have another chance for a system late in the week. This system too was looking much better in yesterday’s model runs but now looks much weaker and farther east as well. Overall, the next ten days look bleak. A bit of cooler air, but only chances for very light snow.
The one saving grace is that ensemble means continue to show the ridge retrograding and opening a storm door at the end of the month. Unfortunately, this is 12-15 days away and when the models are struggling with the medium range, it’s hard to have confidence in the long range.
It seems like we can’t win this year. Ever since the New Year rolled around, we’ve been seeing our hopes dashed time after time. I’m optimistic by nature, I think you have to be to forecast winter storms… but I’m also a skier who wants nothing more than a few powder turns every week — so it’s beyond frustrating. If you’re ready to give up on this year, I understand. But there are signs a very good March could be brewing…. We are due a Miracle.
P.S. I may not post this weekend unless I see something change in the models… I need a break!