Can’t Win.

Friday, February 13, 2015 at 6:21 am


Warm conditions this weekend.  Cooler with a chance for a few light snow showers in northern Utah on Monday.   Another chance for light snow late next week.


The last 24 hours have been BAD if you were hoping for snow in Utah in the next 10 days.  All models trended toward keeping the ridge less amplified and closer to the coast. Which pushes the systems farther east and doesn’t let the in the “backdoor”.   Monday we should still see a cool down and a chance for a few light snow showers in the northern mountains.  But the chances of anything appreciable accumulating look slim.  In yesterday’s discussion, I did mention that this could happen if the ridge set up farther east than forecasted, and sure enough, here we are.  Still sucks….

Ridge dries us back out with warmer temps for Tuesday thru Thursday.  Then we’ll have another chance for a system late in the week.  This system too was looking much better in yesterday’s model runs but now looks much weaker and farther east as well.  Overall, the next ten days look bleak.  A bit of cooler air, but only chances for very light snow.

Long range:

The one saving grace is that ensemble means continue to show the ridge retrograding and opening a storm door at the end of the month.  Unfortunately, this is 12-15 days away and when the models are struggling with the medium range, it’s hard to have confidence in the long range.

It seems like we can’t win this year.  Ever since the New Year rolled around, we’ve been seeing our hopes dashed time after time.  I’m optimistic by nature, I think you have to be to forecast winter storms… but I’m also a skier who wants nothing more than a few powder turns every week — so it’s beyond frustrating.   If you’re ready to give up on this year, I understand.  But there are signs a very good March could be brewing….  We are due a Miracle.


P.S.  I may not post this weekend unless I see something change in the models… I need a break!

This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • Eric Lewis

    You know something is wrong with the world when the following is the case:

    Thanks for your forecasts, it is lucky we agree with the “don’t shoot the messenger” saying!

  • Hey man take a break you deserve it. Your only human and can’t control the weather. I understand that it’s aggravating to not have snow to forecast but it is what it is. Take a long weekend break and enjoy yourself. Cheers! Josh Quinn

  • Tim S

    Do You even winter Utah?

  • You deserve a break. We should all just get outside and make the best of a beautiful weekend. Spring skiing, BBQ’s and enjoy the mountains.

  • Jake

    Thanks thanks for all the reports love all the information.

  • Totally understand how frustrating and disappointing this season (so far) must be for you. You’ve done an awesome job on keeping us at least entertained with your cute videos and headlines. Was speaking to a customer in Canada and he said they were having the worst season in 30 years. Let’s all move out East! Have a great, relaxing, weekend. Maybe don the board shorts and sit in the sun with a margarita!

  • Mitch

    Love this site and clearly this is a disaster of a season so far. That said, have been skiing Park City all week and while it’s not deep pow, the conditions remain surprisingly good and winter-like up top. Snow in the trees is still soft and fun, bumps are in good shape, and groomers skiing really nicely. Plenty of smiles out there. Unless you only enjoy steep and deep, would encourage anyone planning a trip to UT to come (as of now). I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised. Remember, even the worst day of skiing with friends and family is better than almost anything else.

    • Anna

      Thank you for the encouraging information! I figure that even bad conditions in Utah are better than decent conditions out East. We may have powder for now, but we’ll see how long that lasts once the snow stops coming. This area has a penchant to thaw and freeze the snow, or just blow it off the runs completely. Hence the reputation for ice skiing. As far as I remember, I never saw this much ice in my seasons spent in Utah (and this season is supposedly the best). So cheers, West coast skiing still has it’s perks!

    • Alex

      I don’t think we are skiing the same pcmr? All the troughs of the bumps are dirt

  • Christine

    Mitch, thanks for the comment. We planned our trip to Park City back around Christmas when the East Coast season was looking like a bust (60 degrees on Christmas!). Now we are buried in snow in Boston! Glad to hear conditions are still good and we will make the best of our trip (arrive in 10 days).

    • Mitch

      Christine, I live in Boston too and am heading home tomorrow. We’ve had a great week here in Park City and I’m sure you will as well. No one here is having a bad time. Everyone wishes there was more snow and fresh pow, but there is plenty of skiing and fun to be had nonetheless and there are lots of pleasantly surprised people commenting on the quality of skiing and fun despite the dearth of snow. I would be shocked if you found anyone here who would tell you they were sorry they came. Get psyched for your trip!

  • Marry Stewart

    I love this site. Thank you for keeping the faith for all of us. I haven’t given up hope yet.

  • Faceplant

    Sorry guys, this is all my fault. I decided to upgrade my old, bashed up, beat up gear this season. And then, to make matters worse, I bought a backcountry setup too. I’ll never do it again. I’m sorry.

  • Rich

    That’s too bad, I was hoping for some backdoor action with my girl over Valentines weekend.

    Oh well, at least the skiing has been pretty good with some fresh snow earlier in the week and more bluebird sunshine. Beats skiing in 5 below on a 500′ vertical hill back east.

    • sweetenilorac

      Did you really say “backdoor action with my girl over Valentines weekend”? I was a little shocked, but maybe that’s because in Australia that has a whole different meaning. lol Sorry.

  • thanks for all you do, sometimes you just need to ignore it for awhile, feign like you are giving up. Maybe announce no forecasts until after you have skied out the next 1 foot snowfall

  • Mike

    Thanks so much for your work. I’m from Florida, but get a season pass at Brighton. I scored 3 days of powder in January and haven’t been back since. That’s a good thing. Your reports have saved me from flying out for bad snow and I have plenty I can get done while waiting for winter to return. I just pushed back a week of riding for a second time. Let’s hope for the best at the end of the month. Thank you again for all you do!

    Palm Beach Gardens Florida.

  • jim

    Can’t blame you for wanting to take a break. Three models in a row of GFS showing big doughnut hole over utah for 384 hours is enough to throw in the towel for now. Will check back sometime next week maybe things will change. Love your blog though.

  • billy

    You’re the one who has to stay strong and be “glass half full guy”… “can’t win” is hurting the morale of the troops. Lie to us, anything, just be positive, some of us are spiraling downward and you need to pull us back from the ledge.

    • Faceplant

      I’ll give it a try. Tomorrow’s going to be epic. 24″-28″ of 4% blower over some nice medium density. No avy danger and the canyons will stay open. Get your “O” face ready – it’ll be better than midnight midget wrestling.

      How’s that? I know I feel better.

  • Steve-O

    Thanks so much for the continual, detailed forecasts. It’s becoming obvious, however, that weather forecast models are increasingly irrelevant. ALL the West-Central low pressure symptoms arrive later and weaker than predicted…if at all. And that obvious disconnect has been increasing since the mid 1980s.

  • Tim

    12GFS continues to bring the pain (dry) for the rest of February.

  • Ben

    I’m moving to Stowe next year. It may not always snow there, but I won’t have to worry about the society-altering drought that will be sweeping the west over the next couple of years. Enjoy the dust, firestorms and water wars that will be coming to a region near you soon.

  • Jason

    It will snow I know it next weekend it will!!!!!!

  • Mark
  • Andre

    Thanks for the hard work! Take a break and have a cold one! Will donate a few beers here in a few. Just booked a trip to Alta / Bird for feb 27th weekend. Snow or no snow it beats the heck out of working!

  • Christian

    Thanks for the hard work! These warm temperatures have been disheartening for a lot of us. Let’s hope for a killer March with tons of nuclear snow storms all over UT.

  • Tom

    Always try to have fun regardless of conditions, skiing and being in the mountains is great for the soul. No powder? Bust out the carving skis and do big turns. Groomers too boring? Try bumps again. Not interested in bumps? Go back in the trees and try sidecountry. Still bored? Join your kids on the obstacle course, take a few small jumps. Take break, have a beer, soak up some mountain sun. It’s all good.

    • SK

      LOVE your attitude and well said. Wish I could stop staring at the weather forecast 10 times a day filled with anxiety and just embrace whatever will be with great big open arms. Your comment is a great reminder to do just that!

  • Well said, Mitch.

  • had fun

    I just skied PC today and Im a long time reader of the site. The place was doing just fine. Yes, its thin in spots and some slush on the bottom but what a great time. Definitely worth it.. It was a relief to have a good time after reading all the negative posts about Utah’s weather..

  • Raju Sarma

    This is a great site, thank you! Does anyone know if something similar exists for Colorado??? I’m trying to plan a Vail trip in a couple weeks.

  • mike

    Love your post! Best ski foreasting ever! Also love the commnent. You get a accurate picture of conditions. You get the real scoop. Headed to Utah for the first time in Middle of March for ski vacation. I want it to snow like crazy first 1/2 of March. Then sunny blue skies while we are there. Can you do that for me??? Please. ha ha Seriously love this site! Also sure we will love Utah regardless.

  • Mat Young

    Thanks for all your hard work. Take a break a chill. It is what it is…

  • Terry

    Visit this site every day. Thank you so much for you great content and humor. Last window for our crew of 11 to come to Utah is next weekend so we are on. Bad snow in Wasatch is better than good snow in OH/PA/NY 🙂 I also suspect our standards are lower than yours.
    Guess I’ll be working my moguls this trip instead of the pow though.

  • Lloyd

    Thank the lord for trip insurance but i have used it to its max, re-booked three times already, who would have ever thought no snow in February of all the months. Oh well going to make the best of it, rolling out there the end of next week before the snow is all gone and flowers start popping up. Wonder what the bears think of all this warm weather. Thanks for the blog and the time and effort you put into it, you do a better job than the weather guys on tv.

  • Mark

    I left 80 degrees in San Jose, didn’t think I’d see 60 on the car’s thermometer in Park City. Will make the best of it.