A weak storm system will move through today into tonight with scattered snow showers in the mountains of northern Utah. Accumulations should generally remain light (1-4″). High pressure keeps the region warm and dry for the rest of the week after Tuesday. A pattern change starting to show up in the long range.
Mild again this morning in a southerly flow ahead of a weak system that is tracking northeast through the Great Basin. The Wasatch will get clipped today and tonight by the front which is currently can be seen ejecting eastward through northern Nevada. Snow levels will start our high but will drop quickly behind the front to below 6,000 feet.
Accumulations look pretty meager… Only 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch of liquid maxes shown in most areas of the Wasatch. I’m guessing most areas will see an inch or two, but can’t rule out localized areas seeing 3-5″ by tomorrow morning.
High pressure takes firm control later this week and we once again warm up way above normal. That should last through the weekend.
Early to mid next week is when things start to look interesting. I think yesterday’s collection of weird animated GIFs did the trick, because ever since, we’ve had 4 runs of the GFS and 2 runs of the EC that have shown an interesting scenario. What happens is that early next week a cut-off low spins up into the desert southwest with moisture spreading into Utah. At the same time, a cold system drops down from western Canada. This could bring some precipitation to the region, but at this time amounts don’t look significant. The real interesting part is that both operational runs of the major models (Euro and GFS) then show the southern split of the jet stream undercutting the ridge, potentially bringing the area significant precipitation for the middle of next week.
This gif of the GFS is the best way I could figure out to present this scenario in visual form. Notice the moisture from the north and south converging over Utah toward the end of the week before a stronger system undercuts the ridge and moves in from the west:
So how likely is all this? That’s tough to say. This is a complicated pattern that is still 7-10 days out, which means that it’s almost guaranteed not to play out exactly as currently depicted in the models. However, this is the most moisture throughout the entire intermountain west that we’ve seen in a very long time. There is good model agreement as well. All of this leads me to think that at the very least we’ll get a significant pattern shift. At this point, a pattern shift of any kind is desperately needed. We’ll keep an eye on this over the coming days. In the meantime, get creative with your snow summoning rituals!