High pressure in control for now. Moisture riding over the ridge will stream into far northern Utah late Monday thru Wednesday with high elevation snow at times. Additional storms will move into the PNW this weekend, but will struggle to bring significant precipitation to Utah.
Finally January is over! Good riddance! February is here, and with it, perhaps some better chances for snow. The first chance for snow starts Monday night. The first wave will ride over the ridge and into far northern Utah into Tuesday. Significant snow is most likely up near the Idaho border, but off and on snow should occur as far south as Cottonwoods/PC as well. Snow levels will likely be up between 6-7K feet. So the snow will be moderate to high density. A second distinct wave moves in late Tuesday into Wednesday, again favoring areas farther north.
As for amounts, it’s very tricky since the difference in just 50-100 miles can mean the difference between just a few showers and decent accumulations. Here is the QPF map:
This is through Thursday morning and you can see the highest amounts up in Cache County with the Tetons getting walloped again!
For the Cottonwoods, this is the U of U’s graphical output from the 12km resolution NAM model:
You can see we get a few inches by Tuesday AM with another few inches by Wednesday AM. The 4km NAM which usually overdoes things, but can sometimes do well in west-northwest flows like this shows the following:
It only extends through the first wave, but you can see it shows 10″ just from the first wave. I DO NOT expect that to happen, but something in between these two models is possible.
This is a forecast that makes me squirm a bit because if the ridge ends up shunting precip farther north, we could get skunked. However, if the moist boundary sags farther south than currently progged, we could have a very solid snowfall. As of right now, I think we’ll get 3-6″ from each wave in the Cottonwoods, That would put 48-hour totals at 6-12″ for the Cottonwoods by Wednesday PM. PC should see less with probably only a couple inches from each wave. Resorts north of I-80 could get into that 6-12″ range total. Beaver Mountain up by the Idaho border will likely be the big winner with over a foot possible.
It’s important to remember that these totals will be falling over a prolonged period, so it may never feel overly deep.
The moist flow gets pushed well north of us later this week as the ridge amplifies ahead of an approaching system. This system will bring copious rain and mountain snow to the pacific northwest this weekend. The ridge over the intermountain west will make it difficult for significant precip to reach Utah, but we should see at least some scraps. Another system early next week could bring another chance for precipitation to Utah.
For consistent, significant snow we need to rid ourselves of this ridge. Still not many signs of this happening until at least mid-month.
It’s Super Bowl Sunday! Whether you’re rooting for the Seahawk, the Deflatriots, or ignoring the game to take advantage of the empty ski slopes, I hope you have a great day. It may not be the massive dumps we are all hoping for, but at least there is snow in the forecast.