Nothing changed in the forecast (below)… Figured I would just put this map out there. Numbers aren’t all that bad, but they will continue to fall with warm temps and no significant snow in the forecast through the end of the month. If you look to our west, it could be A LOT worse. Tahoe resorts may struggle to remain open as warm temps this week accelerate the melting of their already meager snowpack. Cascades of Oregon aren’t any better. The drought is getting extremely serious in California. Gotta feel for them…
Dry conditions to continue for the rest of this week with a substantial warming trend as high pressure takes total control. Near record high temps likely by early next week.
High pressure is in control now, but it will strengthen and shift overhead through the week and by late weekend / early next week, we’ll be looking at near record highs. Today the forecasted high for the town of Alta is 29F. By Sunday, that high reaches 44F. On Monday, current forecast is for a high of 51F up on the mountain. Full on Spring skiing!
This ridge is almost summer-like in how it looks in models. Adding to that summer feel is that middle of next week (late Tuesday and Wednesday), the models depict a cutoff low will move into the desert southwest from the south and spread moisture north into Utah. It looks remarkably like our typical monsoonal flows we see in July and August. It will bring a chance for precipitation to the region, but because of its warm origins, snow levels could easily be above 8,000 feet. I’m not expecting much from this feature at this time.
After our “monsoonal” moisture surge next week, we return to ridging to close out January. Good riddance! Right now, the GFS has been very consistent in moving a trough into the west coast that could bring us a series of stronger systems. This is outside the range of the 10-day ECMWF, but there are a few Euro ensembles that support this. All January, long-range pattern changes failed to come to fruition — so you’ll understand if I’m not ready to climb aboard on this idea yet. But for right now, it is our only hope.
If you’re in the market for new ski gloves, whether for resort or backcountry, I strongly recommend Free the Powder. It’s a local company that strives to create high-quality, affordable gloves. I was introduced to their gloves about a month ago and was blown away by how warm they were and how much dexterity my fingers retained. Right now, they’ve got a sale going on and you can get your hands on a pair for only $45. Support local business!