Thursday, January 15, 2015 at 8:16 am


Two weak systems this weekend will bring far northern Utah a chance for light snow snow Friday night and again late Sunday into Monday.  Accumulations should be minor.  No signs of major snow in the next week.


High pressure is now in control, but the ridge will flatten Friday night enough to allow a system to brush northern Utah.  Light snow will be possible, mainly from I-80 north to the Idaho border.  Mountains could see an inch or two, but that looks to be it.

Another system is timing for later on Sunday into Monday… again, it looks very weak and likely to only bring very light snow to far northern Utah.

Middle of next week we may see another system drop down the east side of the ridge into the region.  The EC/GEM show this move through the area with just clouds and breezes, but then strengthen the system over southeastern Utah.

Overall, there doesn’t seem to be too much hope of ‘major’ snowfall in the next week, but perhaps small refreshers in places.

Long range:

The ensemble members for both the EC and GFS are all over the place beyond the middle of next week.  So there isn’t a strong trend for troughing, but at the same time there isn’t a strong signal for ridging either.  The MJO is moving into more favorable phases, but is gradually weakening at the same time.

In other news, the GFS model was upgraded yesterday. The upgraded GFS beta has been available all season but what was once a beta is now the operational model.  The immediate impact from this is that it increases the resolution of the model.  This is significant for the Wasatch due to the steep and relatively narrow nature of the Wasatch range.  Because of this, the old GFS had trouble picking up on factors like orographic influence.  Hopefully this new GFS will do better with that.  Jury is still out on how it will do picking up on trends…. Always trying to improve to compete with the gold-standard Euro model…


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11 thoughts on “Scraps

  1. Tim Bowers

    If only those Euros would give the public a fraction of the data free the way NOAA does…..

    Meanwhile the 12NAM is meh on Friday for south of I-80, inch at best but does come in a little wetter for Saturday night/Sunday morning, especially after midnight. That could produce something worthy of measuring…but still not enough to get stoked.

  2. brig

    Porbably need to sacrafice some skis to ULLR in a bonfire. I hear he likes green or orange pairs. Maybe that will get the jet stream to bend and the ridging cycles to end?

  3. chandler

    When you say mjo is moving into a favorable phase but it’s weakening too, what does that mean?

  4. eric lewis

    So, I am trying to figure out why I got an Alta powder alert yesterday, with all sorts of claims that a storm was about to “bring it” big time…. Folks must have been reading their tea leaves or something…

  5. KENNY

    we need 83 and 93 style winters to really dress for the part. I have faith that Utah will receive it’s long awaited William’s wave with strong upper level winds+lake effect prone style orographic’s to make a real showstopper.

  6. Tim Bowers

    Looking at all the overnight models, nothing to get excited about is on the horizon for the next 7-10 days. Dusting here. An inch or two there. However, if any of these skimming waves go a little deeper to the south and into the ridge, accumulations would go up. First chance is tonight. In the meantime, it’s a wait and see. If you HAVE to ski the next few days and want something fresh, I suggest Snowbasin or anything north.

  7. Chris

    We are skiing alta, the bird and deer valley over super bowl weekend. Do you see anything major in late January thru 2 feb? Thanks. Chris

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