Last Chair Monday, First Chair Tuesday

Sunday, January 11, 2015 at 6:24 am

Sunday PM:

Models looking very good this afternoon with the upcoming system. Therefore, I’m thinking we can safely expect higher totals. 6-12″ with up to 15″ in the Cottonwoods. Snow starting Monday morning and continuing Monday night. Storm day skiing on Monday, first chair powder on Tuesday. Most excellent!



Our weak system last night brought 1-4″ of snow to the mountains of Utah.  A stronger system moves in on Monday.  Last chair Monday, first chair Tuesday are the best bets.  Another storm is possible late next weekend.


Well, our very weak southern split system moved through yesterday evening and overnight and did about as well as we could have hoped. 2-3″ reported in the Cottonwoods with snow showers continuing as of 6am.  2″ on the PC side. 3″ at Snowbasin.  4″ farther south at Eagle Point and Brian Head.  Snow showers should taper off as the morning goes on.

Attention right now is on tomorrow’s storm system.  A few days ago I described the storm as a bowling ball.  This metaphor still seems particularly apt given the model trends over the past few days.  For awhile the storm was headed south, appearing as if it would be a “gutter ball”, but at the last minute, the spin kicked in and it’s headed for the center pin.  Hopefully, we’ll get a strike.  In other words, the models have come around in subsequent runs and now show the storm hitting the entire state fairly hard.  It’s not a major storm, but it should be enough to give you some fresh powder turns.

The snow should begin either late morning or early afternoon on Monday, likely beginning farther north and spreading south.  It is a last chair Monday and first chair Tuesday scenario.  If you’ve only got one day off from work and you’re trying to decide which day to ski…. That’s a tough call.  If you like storm skiing, perhaps Monday afternoon.  But Tuesday is definitely the safe bet if you can get up there early… or night skiing Monday evening…. 🙂 Personally, I’d do all three!

Snowfall amounts look to be in the 4-8″ range for resorts north of I-80 (Beav/PowMow/Snowbasin) as well as for the resorts of Park City.   The highest amounts 6-12″, should fall in the Cottonwoods.  6-12″ may also be possible for places like Eagle Point, with 3-6″ down at Brian Head.  These amounts are through Tuesday morning.   You can see on the below image where the best precipitation will be, generally between I-80 and I-70 in the mountains:



Here is the NAM output for the upper Cottonwoods, showing the possibility for nearly a foot:



It may not be the largest storm we’ve seen here in Utah, but it certainly feels nice after our recent dry period.  It should also mostly scour out the existing inversion, which will literally be a breath of fresh air.

Long Range:

We ridge up from Tuesday through Saturday with the possibility for inversion conditions to re-develop.  Luckily, we’ve got a system in both models for late Sunday into Monday of next week.  The GFS and Euro flipped from yesterday, with the GFS now the stronger of the two models as the Euro weakens this system considerably as it moves inland.  We’ll keep an eye on this, the models will be looking to find a consensus over the next couple days.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • Dan H

    Late January has proved to be fortuitus in the past three years for LLC. I have faith that the ridge will break down soon and I can go set up shop at the Peruvian for some DEEEEP turns at alta

  • Bob M

    Well…looks like good news.

  • Spank Tickleman

    A little freshening up is nice…

  • Jibbathehut

    are we looking at any snow in ogden, slc or the benches?

  • Jake

    My good sir you are a saint for doing this

  • Ed Hocoulli

    best period of snow, per the 18z NAM, is 11am-5pm Monday. Enjoy.

  • Darin

    Hey do you also provide your forecasts ?

  • TR

    Told everyone it would switch paths. I knew it when the early forecast was for it to go south. That’s all the knowledge I need…

  • Tim Bowers

    WWAs issued starting at 5am Monday to 11am Tuesday. 8-16″ forecasted. If this holds true, I will have a new found respect for the NAM model. That model started with this crazy idea of big pow on the 00z Saturday (5pm Friday, local time) model run and stayed pretty much consistent since then. I don’t know about 14-16″ for the peaks but 6-12″ overall is a safe bet.