Positive signs

Saturday, January 10, 2015 at 6:13 am


A weak system will bring some light mountain snow to mainly southern and central Utah late today into tonight.  Some of the snow may reach the Wasatch tonight with light accumulation possible.  Another system for Monday afternoon will have a better chance for accumulating snowfall.  A larger storm possible in the long range…?


We currently have a system that is tracking into the southern Great Basin today and will work its way into Utah this evening.  Snowfall in the central and southern mountains perhaps reaching as far north as SLC/PC tonight.  Accumulations in Central and Southern Utah (south of Provo) mountains will be 2-5″ while areas around SLC will be in the trace-3″ range by tomorrow morning.  Not much at all, but perhaps just a fresh layer of snow for Sunday.

A bit stronger system is still progged to move into the region on Monday.  The track of this system has been giving me forecaster headaches all week with models disagreeing and each track having it’s own degree of merit.  The GFS and Euro are finally basically in line with each other.  They bring the whole state precip, but focus the best precip in Central and Southern Utah.  The NAM is the farthest north with the max qpf, here is its output for the storm:



If the above were to verify, we’d be looking at 6-12″ at least in most of the high elevations of the Wasatch.  However, the other models aren’t quite as bullish, at least for this far north.

As for our forecast, well that scares me.  If there is ever a storm to make forecasters look stupid, this is it.  If it takes a more western/southern track, then we could get skunked well and good in the Wasatch.  If it tracks farther north and that NAM solution shown above is correct, then we could get close to a foot in many locales.  I think the most likely scenario for the high Wasatch is 4-8″ by Tuesday morning.   Stay tuned over the next two days as the models will continue to refine this forecast and I’ll let you know if it’ll be worth taking Tuesday off from work/school….

Long range:

We dry out for later next week but things start to look interesting by the end of next weekend (Jan 18-19).  The Euro has a strong storm moving into the West, including Utah.  The GFS has it too, but weakens the system more as it moves inland.  Either way, it’ll be fun to watch and hopefully we can return to full on winter mode for the second half of the month.  Stay tuned!


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13 thoughts on “Positive signs

  1. Ben

    How tight is the correlation between your forecasts for the Wasatch and what might happen in the SnowBasin/Powder Mountain area to the North? Heading to the latter next weekend and unfortunately there is no weather blog as great as yours that covers that area. Thanks!

  2. Tony

    This is the place for Ogden area forecasts! I believe he references them as “north of I-80”.

    Often VERY accurate!

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