Warm and sunny this week. Some clouds and a bit of cooling this weekend. A storm is possible for the entire state on Monday.
Nothing new in the short term. Warm temps and sun on the mountain. Relatively cool temps and haze in the valleys as the inversions strengthen.
This weekend we have some weak waves moving both to our south and far to our north. We should see an increase in clouds but it is looking less likely we’ll see any precipitation and the inversions should stick around through the weekend.
The big development over the past 24 hours was that models are now taking a wave for next week that was originally looking like a weak brush-by system and making it look stronger and more consolidated as it passes directly through Utah. This system looks like it will affect the region on Monday with snow falling in the mountains and likely the valleys as well.
There are still big question marks right now as this definitely looks to be a one-and-done system that breaks through a temporarily flattened ridge. Until we have a few more model runs of consistently showing this system, I’m going to err on the side of caution. However, be aware the Monday could be a powder day if things go our way. Here is a look at the current model QPF for this system:
Don’t pay too much attention to any of the numbers in that image, this is a low resolution model and as we get closer these numbers will be fine tuned. IF things work out for us, it could be at least a moderate storm! Right now that is a big “IF”… But yesterday the models showed far less potential for anything to deliver any new snow at all to us, so this is definitely a victory. As I always say, everything outside the 5-day range is subject to change completely. That is about the extent of model reliability. Yes we can get a general feel for the pattern beyond that, but the specifics are always changing.
Models still generally agree that the pattern will pick up in intensity and frequency of storms after mid-month. At this point it is still too early to know any details whatsoever other than “it looks to get stormier”….