C’mon Santa

Tuesday, December 16, 2014 at 6:28 am

A weak, splitting system will bring snow showers to the mountains of northern Utah today. Far from impressive, but we can’t rule out a couple inches today if we get under a persistent band.

The southern split of the system moves into southern Utah tomorrow. A decent snow event will take place down there with 4-8″ in the highest mountains of far southern Utah.

Northern Utah goes dry for the end of the work week as a ridge builds along the west coast. This will put us in a northwest flow by the weekend. One wave will move into the area on Saturday, but models have been trending much weaker with this feature. Probably only good for a couple inches in the mountains of northern utah. The northwest flow continues into early next week however, with additional disturbances moving through. While none look overly impressive, patterns like this can often surprise us.

Model precip between now and Christmas Eve:



Amounts are not impressive, but the northwest flow does produce. Models (Gfs and ecmwf) then suggest a potentially stronger system for Christmas Day. Here is the QPF blosoming right at the end of the run:


So here is my usual disclaimer that it’s nearly 10 days away and a lot can change… but we can at least watch and hope that in the meantime, our weak disturbances can overproduce. Think snow!


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  • Hoping its better

    Any comparisons between this Christmas and 2011?

  • Faceplant

    Looks like the majority of last season where the high is too far east. Jackson and CO get hit and we get skunked.

  • David

    I’m interested in learning more about forecasting and specifically how to interpret models. Do you know of any good websites, books, or other resources I should check out?