A few more dry and very warm days before things change. A storm will move into the area late Friday and continue through Saturday. Saturday powder looks to be in the cards!
Dry and mild weather continue. Utah continues to approach record high temps each day as we remain parked under strong ridging…..
Luckily, the ridging will break down on Friday as a strong trough pushes into the west coast. The trough will bring copious snowfall to the Sierra Nevada as it battles the ridge and moves eastward. It should arrive in Utah by Friday night, albeit in a weakened state. Models have remained consistent with regard to how they handle this storm… The GFS shows the following precip through the end of the weekend:
Unimpressive, right? Yeah, it isn’t all that strong, but remember the GFS is low-resolution and doesn’t do well with the terrain of Utah. So I’d expect at least more than this map is showing us for the Wasatch range. The EC looked alright yesterday morning but backed off a tad in it’s 12z run with 0.75″ or so of liquid for the Wasatch. But last night’s 00z run exploded with more than double that amount for parts of the Wasatch:
While it might be tempting to get excited, the lack of consistency in the model runs is troubling. I’d expect this amount to come down again. I still think that if things go our way, we could see a up to a foot of snowfall Friday night into Saturday. My concern for the last 5 days hasn’t changed, I still see the potential for this storm to split even more than models are currently showing. To my eyes, there is just a lot of opportunity for things to go wrong. But as it stands right now, Saturday looks like it will be a good powder day in Northern Utah.
Ridge is going to rebuild over us early next week. All models keep waves of energy moving into the west coast but vary on how far east this systems can track before the ridge decimates them to nothing more than clouds. The GFS is a little more optimistic than the EC about getting some actual precip into the area next week. I personally think the storms will end up doing better against the ridge than the EC suggests. Time will tell, but hopefully we can get a full breakthrough of the westerlies before Christmas.