Light at the End of the Tunnel

Thursday, December 4, 2014 at 6:17 am

FRIDAY UPDATE:

Not much new to talk about today… A couple weak systems over the next few days will bring clouds at times, but otherwise we remain dry and mild.  Timing of these weak systems looks like late Saturday into Sunday morning and late Monday into Tuesday.  Again, I don’t expect anything from these except clouds and perhaps a stray shower in places.

Eyes continue to be on a large Pacific trough for late next week.  This definitely looks like it will change us back to more active weather, however there is some concern of it splitting in a manner similar to this last system.  Too early to know anything for sure… but as always, we’ll update as we get closer…WSF

Previous:

Summary:

A few showers possible in northern Utah today with some more organized precip for far southern Utah.  Snow levels will remain high with little to no accumulation.  A few weak disturbances could keep clouds around, but mild temps and mostly dry weather will continue for the next week.  Storms possibly return late next week.

Details:

Our “sloppy” storm from yesterday is moving out.  The southern split of the system is affecting southern Utah today with snow above 7,000 feet.  Northern Utah should just see a few remnant showers at best.  I’ve said all week not to expect more than 6″ from this storm and sure enough, the totals from yesterday were anywhere from zilch to 3″.

The remnants of a couple weak trailing systems will move through the west through this weekend. I don’t expect it to do much more than increase clouds a bit from time to time.  But we can’t rule out a brief shower in the mountains.  Other than that, temps will stay mild, which is unfortunate because it should limit snowmaking ability.

My attention is fully focused on the Dec 11-13 time frame…  I’ve mentioned these dates for the last few days because I see this as when the ridge could finally break down and actually allow storms to progress inland.  I’ve been using long range ensembles up until this point, but now the changes are starting to appear in the operational runs as well.  Here is the latest QPF through the end of the Euro.

utah_qpf

Virtually everything on this map falls the last two days of the run.  Too early for details, but at least we’ll have a chance for some better storms late next week.

WSF





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  • Darren

    Any chance for temps to become more seasonal with the storms forecasted for next week?

  • Will it ever snow again in Tahoe?

    This morning it looked like next week’s storm was going to split and leave northern Utah mostly dry. Tonight, the newest models suggest that Utah may get a direct hit! Keep your fingers crossed.