Excitement Building!

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 at 7:00 am

Tuesday Mid-day update:

Nothing new to add aside from confirming the 12z EC continued to be just as optimistic regarding the weekend system.  It also looks better next week, now showing a possibile storm for around Thanksgiving Day…. Still 7 more runs of the EC before this event begins on Saturday.  So now we just wait and hope this all works out…. More tomorrow…WSF



A few more dry days in store for Utah before a potentially significant storm moves in for the weekend.  Heavy snow likely late Saturday into Sunday.


Ridge is still strong overhead.  Two systems will attempt to break down the ridge over the next three days.  Both of which will be shredded to pieces as they move into the west coast.  By the time these systems reach Utah, it looks like there will be nothing left but a few clouds and Thursday and Friday.  But these systems will pave the way for the big one for the weekend…

All attention is on this third storm for Saturday and Sunday.  I mentioned to a friend yesterday,  I love everything about this storm.  It has all the ingredients of epic Utah snowstorms.  1) Ample moisture to work with.  2) We are in a favorable location for the best dynamics.  3) A strong jet that will add plenty of lift to generate snowfall. 4) A long duration northwest flow behind the front. (Northwest flow is king)  5) Decent amounts of cold air for low snow levels and perhaps some lake effect/enhancement.   Overall, just a great looking storm system, and the models have been remarkably consistent since Saturday.  Every time a new run comes in, my reaction:



I’ve been trying to keep my excitement in check the last few days.  We are still 5 days out and there is certainly plenty of time for models to change their minds.  Still… I think a worst case scenario at this point is that we have a good storm.  The best case scenario is that we have a great storm.  What more could you ask for for opening weekend?

Keep those snow dances going and those fingers crossed that it all works out for us! I’ll take a first look at potential snowfall totals tomorrow morning…

Long range: 

A secondary impulse could keep snow showers going on Monday.  We will ridge up and dry out through Thanksgiving Day.  There is some indication of active weather returning for the last weekend of November.


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14 thoughts on “Excitement Building!

  1. T-Bone

    I never thought I was a weather nerd until I started reading this site. You do a great job of not just informing, but educating. And there’s usually something in there to make me laugh out loud. Great gif! Ha!

  2. Steve

    I have been an active reader for 3 years and I have always wondered what Evan looks like.
    Now i know!! Who would have guessed he was so hairy, but I guess that explains why he is always so eager to get out into the snow!!!

  3. eric lewis

    Why are you teasing us with no totals amounts yet? I know why, you don’t want folks like me to consider booking a plane ticket for the weekend. You are a selfish orang-utan! : )

    1. Ben

      Or it could be that estimating snow totals 96 hours before a storm is even approaching the area has about as good a chance of being correct as guessing that Babe Ruth was born in 1787.

      I predict NOAA will put upper LCC/BCC totals for the weekend at 30-50 inches with the Thursday forecast updates. With the Friday afternoon update, that will drop to 15-30 inches, and the storm will actually drop 8-12 inches.

  4. Sam

    I saw a report today, that 50% of the country now has snow on it, and in a typical year 33% of the country is covered by Christmas.

    I know the snow on the ground insulates and helps to keeps things cooler, so how does this impact the rest of the season?

    Does a good start to winter like this tend to lead to a better season or is there no correlation?

  5. Steve

    I know it’s only one run, but I like the look of the 18Z GFS for this weekend’s storm. Very curious as to estimates for snow totals from Evan.

  6. Jen

    Thank you so much for your commitment to this blog. You are the most reliable and understandable forecast out there and I check this daily during ski season. Looking forward to even more great info this winter. I appreciate your time and knowledge! Thank you!

  7. Spank Tickleman

    I’m reserving a conservative “WHOOOOOOOOOOOO. HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!” for the occasion but I’ll keep a cap on it until we actually see the snow. . (fingers crossed)

  8. matt

    Just moved to SLC and found this blog. I’ve been checking it daily for the past month. Keep up the good work.

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