Tuesday Mid-day update:
Nothing new to add aside from confirming the 12z EC continued to be just as optimistic regarding the weekend system. It also looks better next week, now showing a possibile storm for around Thanksgiving Day…. Still 7 more runs of the EC before this event begins on Saturday. So now we just wait and hope this all works out…. More tomorrow…WSF
A few more dry days in store for Utah before a potentially significant storm moves in for the weekend. Heavy snow likely late Saturday into Sunday.
Ridge is still strong overhead. Two systems will attempt to break down the ridge over the next three days. Both of which will be shredded to pieces as they move into the west coast. By the time these systems reach Utah, it looks like there will be nothing left but a few clouds and Thursday and Friday. But these systems will pave the way for the big one for the weekend…
All attention is on this third storm for Saturday and Sunday. I mentioned to a friend yesterday, I love everything about this storm. It has all the ingredients of epic Utah snowstorms. 1) Ample moisture to work with. 2) We are in a favorable location for the best dynamics. 3) A strong jet that will add plenty of lift to generate snowfall. 4) A long duration northwest flow behind the front. (Northwest flow is king) 5) Decent amounts of cold air for low snow levels and perhaps some lake effect/enhancement. Overall, just a great looking storm system, and the models have been remarkably consistent since Saturday. Every time a new run comes in, my reaction:
I’ve been trying to keep my excitement in check the last few days. We are still 5 days out and there is certainly plenty of time for models to change their minds. Still… I think a worst case scenario at this point is that we have a good storm. The best case scenario is that we have a great storm. What more could you ask for for opening weekend?
Keep those snow dances going and those fingers crossed that it all works out for us! I’ll take a first look at potential snowfall totals tomorrow morning…
A secondary impulse could keep snow showers going on Monday. We will ridge up and dry out through Thanksgiving Day. There is some indication of active weather returning for the last weekend of November.