Snow will develop throughout the day in Northern Utah although accumulations will be generally light. A break on Friday with a stronger system likely on Saturday. Total accumulations by Sunday should be 6-12+” above 7,000 feet.
Moisture is already advecting into the area ahead of our system. Unfortunately, this system doesn’t have much organization to it so it will mostly just throw a bunch of moisture at us today and we’ll have to hope our mountains can focus it into decent snowfall. These storms are generally a crapshoot, but it does look like the Northern Wasatch (north of SLC) will do the best today with up to 6″ of snow in the mountains (maybe more?). The Cottonwoods could see a few inches. SLC valley could see some snow showers at times but it will turn to rain by this afternoon. It should stay as snow in Ogden, Ogden Valley, and Cache Valley. A few inches possible up there in the valleys.
Friday is a break day before a cold front sags south on Saturday. Big factor here is just how quickly the cold front moves through the area on Saturday. A slower passage will allow more time for accumulation. Faster = lesser. Best guess right now is an additional 4-8″ on top of what we got today. That makes for general snowfall totals of 7-14″ through Sunday. Not great, but not bad either. Here is a map of forecasted precip through Sunday…
Temperatures will be cold Sunday in early next week behind the cold front so additional snow making can occur.
High pressure builds back in for next week. This high pressure is significantly stronger now than models were suggesting just two days ago. That means the system for the middle of next week will split apart and weaken before it gets to us. We’ll likely get nothing from it. Both EC and GFS agree that another, stronger trough will try to break down the ridge next Friday (11/21). It looks like that trough may also weaken, but the ridge may finally break down and allow subsequent storms to make it through. By the end of the 10-day model runs, it looks like we’ll have a much more zonal flow (less amplified) across North America. That means less opportunity for massive ridges and more opportunity for storms.
If we can break down this ridge as currently advertised, the week leading up to Thanksgiving could get interesting…