Big Change Today

Monday, November 10, 2014 at 6:55 am


Much cooler for your Monday with a few snow showers in the mountains.  Moisture will move into the area on Thursday with some high elevation snow.  More moisture this weekend with lower snow levels.


Cold front is currently clipping Northern Utah as expected.  KMTX radar seems to be down, but looking out my window I can see it is snowing in the Wasatch as of 7:00 AM.  Here is a webcam image from Alta confirming the same:



Very hard to gauge how much snow has fallen so far up there, would expect it’s just an inch or two max.  If you’re somewhere up high, a report would be appreciated 🙂

The showers should clear out by this afternoon and we’ll be left with cool temps and some wind.  The cool air should allow for at least a couple full nights of snow making. We’ll be under brief high pressure through Wednesday.

On Thursday, moisture will undercut the ridge which is amplified up the west coast.  This moisture is taking dead aim at northern Utah.  Unfortunately, there isn’t much in the way of dynamics for this moisture and there is no associated cold front.  It should bring showers to the Wasatch on Thursday but without much cold air, we’re looking at snow levels around 8,000 feet.  Precip should be generally light anyway, here is a look at QPF through Thursday:


The red ovals indicate the Wasatch and Uinta ranges which could see 1-3″ above 8,000 feet on Thursday.

Right now it appears that Friday is a break day before we have a second, colder wave on Saturday.  There are large differences right now between the three major models, so I’m not going to get into too much details.  Our best case scenario looks like this through Sunday evening:


In this case, the same areas receive significantly more precip and cold air on Saturday.  This solution would likely bring a decent snowstorm.  Not sure I trust it just yet, but it’s worth watching.

With confidence right now, I can say it will be much more active this weekend than it has been over the past few weeks.  Hopefully that means a good snowstorm but at this point it’s still a bit early to say, especially with so much model disagreement.

Long range:

A couple model runs show a third wave of moisture for Monday or Tuesday of next week.  Both the EC and GFS then show a trough moving toward California during the middle of next week.  This should affect our weather, but it’s impossible to know exactly how right now.  There is some indication in both the EC and GFS that this system could split and/or drop down the coast and bring most of its energy to SoCal and the desert southwest.  We’ll keep an eye on it…



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