Last Day of its Kind

Sunday, November 9, 2014 at 8:23 am


One last warm fall day today (Sunday).  Much colder tomorrow with a few mountain snow showers.  Windy and cool this week with snow arriving for Northern Utah mountains later this week into the weekend.


We are experiencing one last very warm day here in Utah.  Get out and enjoy a hike, a bike ride, a golf round… whatever tickles your fancy!

Things change tomorrow as a cold front drops down the Rockies.  This system has trended slightly farther west each day since we first forecasted it 6 days ago.  This means that Northern Utah is much more likely to get in on a fraction of the action (that rhymes!).  I’d expect temps to drop from the upper 60s in the valleys today to around 50 for tomorrow’s high.  The Wasatch and Uintahs should see scattered snow showers tomorrow.  Accumulations should be very light, but can’t rule out 1-3″ in a few locales that get under a stronger snow band.  Total QPF appears very light, however, through Wednesday:



With so much shallow cold air east of the Wasatch mountains this week and a tight pressure gradient, we could see some canyon winds.  The cold air will sink down the canyons and create a potential canyon wind event along the Wasatch Front.

A more significant snow event is setting up for later this week.  Moisture will undercut the west coast ridge and combine with cold air dropping down the east side of the ridge.   There isn’t much organization to this precipitation.  It appears it will move into the area in waves starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend.  I’d expect periods of snowfall off and on through the weekend.  Very tough to pinpoint amounts in a scenario like this, but it could certainly add up in the Wasatch with such a long duration.  Here is the current total QPF through late Saturday:



This would translate to up to a foot in the high elevations.  I’m not confident enough to call this a forecast just yet, but it’s certainly a good sign.

We are fast approaching opening day for a couple ski resorts in the Wasatch.  The good news is that snow is on the way. The other good news is that cold temperatures this week should allow for additional snow making.  There’s no doubt we are behind average so far for the year, but one good storm cycle could put us back on track!

Long range:

The GFS model has been very consistent in bringing an active pattern into the area beyond mid-month.  The Euro hasn’t been nearly as optimistic…. until now.  00z EC this morning also shows a nice, consolidated trough moving into the Great Basin at the end of it’s run 11/19.  Too early to get excited? Probably.  But still, it’s another good sign that we can get winter going as we head toward Thanksgiving… More on this over the next few days…


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  • WSF,

    What’s the word on the snow rot?


    • I was up at 9,000 feet today and there was still snow on north-facing aspects and it is definitely weak and rotted. The good news is that it appears to only be a few inches deep so hopefully it won’t compromise stability too much.