Ridge will keep us dry through the weekend. A cold front will cool us down on Monday. A chance for high elevation snow by late next week!
I gotta tell you. Forecasting during dry periods is painful. Speculatively looking for good signs in the long range is no fun. It’s much more enjoyable to forecast something real in the next ten days that doesn’t rely on hope and prayer. Today’s the day that speculation becomes reality. More on that in a minute…
For now, we’ll have warm and mostly sunny weather through the weekend. Cold front drops down the Rockies on Sunday night into Monday. Northern Utah will get clipped with some cooler air and some clouds but most snowfall should stay north and east of us. Here is the forecasted precip for the region from today through Wednesday 11/12:
As you can see, Utah is high and dry for the most part with any and all precipitation staying just to our north and east.
If the forecasting models were in a classroom together, the ECMWF (Euro) would be the straight-A student. The GFS would be the son of rich parents with all the pedigree and expectations but also a frustrating inability to meet those expectations — therefore always trying to copy the ECMWF’s work in order to get into a respectably college. The Canadian GEM, on the other hand, would be the ADHD student that occasionally shouted out a really good idea. I use this analogy only because it seems every year the ECMWF performs better while our own country’s GFS falls farther behind. Example below…
Yesterday, if you remember, the ECMWF had latched onto an idea for two straight runs of undercutting the amplified west coast ridge with a bit of moisture which streamed into Utah. It came out of nowhere, but as I said yesterday, it deserves our attention because the EC is the gold standard in models. I said, “A few more runs of each model and we should be able to get a better sense for whether this potential pattern shift is real or not.” Sure enough, after two more runs of the Euro and 4 more runs of the GFS, both models agree that late next week we’ll develop a northwest flow of undercutting moisture that will give us a chance for snowfall. The EC is much more organized than the GFS right now, but both models bring a fairly extended period for at least light snowfall. It’s far too early to say this will be something significant, but it’s certainly better than the nothingness we’ve been seeing in models lately.
Here is the total precip through the end of the 10-day operational:
Forecast models are a bit confused right now… 06z GFS is probably getting a lot of people excited as the operational model shows a series of storms moving into the region as we move toward Thanksgiving. GFES ensemble suite, however, isn’t quite so optimistic and tries to build ridging back along the west coast. The majority of EC ensembles also favor ridging continuing, however an increasing number of them are moving toward a stormy pattern. We could be just witnessing a slow trend in the long range models toward developing a stormy pattern…. For now let’s just temper the expectations so as not be too disappointed.
Also of note, former Super Typhoon Nuri is forecasted to re-strengthen as an extratropical system in the Bering Sea. This has many meteorologists fascinated as it was at one point forecasted to be one of the strongest extratropical systems ever. Eventually Nuri will weaken and perhaps get swept up in the westerlies where it could have an effect on our weather down the road… worth watching.